Macro categories:
China's financial data improved slightly in March, the growth rate of social finance stock stabilized and rebounded in March, and the medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises also improved month on month. However, at present, the steady growth policy is still in the transmission stage. Under the impact of the epidemic, China's official manufacturing, non manufacturing and comprehensive PMI indexes fell in March. At present, the severe epidemic situation in Shanghai will also drag down China's subsequent exports. At the meso level, in March, the land acquisition of national real estate enterprises fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and heavy trucks still fell sharply year-on-year. At the micro level, as of the week of April 7, the thread output, factory warehouse and social warehouse all changed from decline to increase. The social warehouse ended the previous four consecutive weeks of decline. Our latest research shows that the national downstream construction improved only slightly year-on-year and month on month last week, and the peak season was not prosperous. In the short term, China's "weak reality" situation continues.
In the intraday trading on April 11, the interest rate spread of China US 10-year Treasury bonds showed an upside down for the first time since July 2010. From the current trend of split monetary policy between China and the United States, the upside down of interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds is expected to continue. Since 2007, we have seen three rounds of upside down of China US interest margin. Looking back on the asset performance in the stage, we can see that China's assets are facing certain selling pressure. The probability of rising of China's stock index is only 33%, the probability of rising of the US dollar against the RMB is 66%, and the probability of rising of wind commodities is only 33%. Among them, the performance of oil and oil is the weakest, all three samples recorded a decline, and the probability of weak performance of nonferrous metals and chemical industry is 33%. However, it should also be pointed out that the above samples are concentrated from 2008 to 2010. The time difference and number of samples are small, and the overall performance is only for reference.
The Fed's tightening expectations threaten global equity markets. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March significantly increased the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp at the meeting in May, and the table reduction process was far more than expected. It is planned to reduce the scale of assets held by the Federal Reserve by up to $95 billion per month, while the highest scale of the previous table reduction is $50 billion per month. The last round of shrinkage statement is obviously bad for equity assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with equity assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
In terms of commodity segments, under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, it is still necessary to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. In addition, on April 6, the IEA said that the total storage volume of its Member States reached 240 million barrels, which is also assumed to be released within six months, equivalent to an additional supply of about 1.3 million barrels / day. On the other hand, the market generally expects the range of supply loss in Russia to be 2-3 million barrels / day (the actual range of loss remains to be confirmed by future data), Therefore, IEA member states' stockpile dumping can not fully fill the supply gap caused by Russian sanctions. Combined with the information that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still in twists and turns, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities remain in a high and volatile situation; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to solve due to the superposition of high inflation in the United States, and the global precious metal ETF position continues to rise close to the historical high against the background of approaching 2.7% of 10Y US bonds. We still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
