In March 2022, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion and RMB credit increased by 3.3 trillion. The balance of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, reaching a new high since last year, greatly exceeding market expectations.
Credit is mainly in the government (government bonds) and enterprise (short-term loans, bills and medium and long-term loans). In March, the new social finance increased by 1.3 trillion year-on-year, of which government bonds (about 400 billion year-on-year), short-term loans and on balance sheet bills (about 760 billion year-on-year) and off balance sheet bills (about 260 billion year-on-year) contributed almost all the growth of social finance this month.
At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has become positive, which is also a very important driving wind direction for social finance repair.
However, residents' credit is still weak. In March, residents' credit still contracted by about 390 billion yuan year-on-year, including 250 billion yuan of medium and long-term loans and 139.4 billion yuan of short-term loans.
At present, the goal of broadening credit is to expand infrastructure and stabilize small and medium-sized enterprises
First, entrusted loans and trust loans increased year-on-year, of which the year-on-year increase of 153.2 billion yuan is almost the largest increase in a single month since the new asset management regulations in 2018. Entrusted loans and trust loans mainly flow to infrastructure and real estate. Therefore, the improvement of these two non-standard financing means that infrastructure or real estate financing has been repaired on the margin. Secondly, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises improved significantly in March compared with February. More than half of the medium and long-term loans of enterprises go to infrastructure. Coupled with the fast pace of the issuance of government special bonds in March, it may indicate that there is a significant expansion of financing within and outside the budget of infrastructure in March this year. At the same time, combined with resident credit and private real estate enterprise financing, the improvement of entrusted and trust loans this month or synchronously confirmed the large amount of infrastructure financing in March.
In addition, the net financing volume of on balance sheet bills and short-term loans was 1.5 trillion, which was almost the same as that in March 2020 and significantly exceeded other periods in history. The purpose of this abnormal rhythm can also be compared with the specific liquidity invested to support small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the first quarter of 2020, that is, when the epidemic affected the economy.
What do you expect next? Waiting for real estate credit recovery
There are three obvious links in China's steady growth: infrastructure, real estate and consumption. The main line of steady growth at the beginning of the year lies in the substantial volume of infrastructure, and the real estate policy is further relaxed. At present, the data are gradually fulfilling this judgment. Looking back on the current credit expansion, the rebound of social finance in the first quarter was supported by infrastructure financing, but compared with January and March, social finance was also supported by bills inside and outside the day scale, which was used to stabilize the cash flow of small and medium-sized enterprises. This coincides with the effect of the value-added tax rebate and offset policy, which is also a kind of financial operation in essence. Therefore, the steady growth we have seen so far still focuses on finance.
Looking ahead, we look forward to further follow up the real estate easing policy in the second quarter until the real estate data stabilize. After all, real estate is a systemically important sector in China. At present, under the dual pressure of tightening overseas liquidity and the impact of China's epidemic, China can not afford the stall and decline of real estate this year.
Risk warning: the epidemic development exceeded expectations; Real estate credit is lower than expected.
