The growth rate of social finance exceeded expectations, and policy support is still expected in the follow-up. The growth rate of social financing stock increased, and the new social financing and RMB loans exceeded expectations. At the end of March, the stock of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.4 percentage points. The cumulative increment of social finance in the first quarter was 12.06 trillion yuan. In March alone, the social financing increment was 4.65 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation, 1.28 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year, of which the foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 481.7 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. With the support of the steady growth policy, banks have increased credit, and the growth rate of social finance and new RMB loans have rebounded. However, the epidemic has formed certain constraints on the economy and financial market. Although the real estate policy has been marginally relaxed, it has not been reflected in the sales data. On April 6, the national standing committee meeting mainly made relevant work deployment in three aspects. It is expected that monetary policy will continue to work accurately and in coordination with fiscal policy to promote consumption and effective investment. The impact of the subsequent epidemic may gradually weaken, and the economy is expected to accelerate recovery under the support of policies.
New government bond financing is still high, and off balance sheet financing has warmed up. The proportion of direct financing decreased in March. Government bond financing is still the main driving force of direct financing, and corporate bond financing is relatively stable. In March, new government bond financing increased by 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year. On February 24, the Ministry of Finance issued the report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy in 2021, pointing out that the proactive fiscal policy this year focuses on six aspects. This year, the intensity of special bonds has increased, and the characteristics of issuing ahead are obvious; In terms of enterprises, the new bond financing increased by 8.7 billion yuan year-on-year in March. Under the background of encouraging bond financing and marginal relaxation of real estate policies, corporate bond financing is relatively stable. The off balance sheet financing policy increased by more than 42.3 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the undiscounted bank acceptance bill increased by 258.2 billion yuan year-on-year, the financing demand of enterprises recovered under the steady growth policy, and the trust loan decreased by 153.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
Enterprise loans are mainly driven by short-term loans and bills, and the epidemic has affected residents' loans. Enterprise short-term loans and bill financing increased more, and medium and long-term loans also recovered. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the loans of enterprises (Institutions) increased by 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The new medium and long-term loans increased by 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year this month. The increase of bill financing and short-term loans led to the recovery of enterprise loans, or was affected by short-term impulse. On the whole, geopolitics continued to affect commodities and global capital markets, and sporadic outbreaks occurred frequently in March. The epidemic situation in Shanghai was not optimistic, and the financing needs of enterprises were still affected in April. In March, household loans increased by 758.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 398.9 billion yuan. Consistent with expectations, the epidemic continued to affect residents' loans. In March, the new medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 250.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Under the influence of the epidemic, residents' risk aversion increased and their willingness to consume and invest decreased.
M2 growth picked up and the deposits of enterprises and residents increased. In March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation. Due to the increase of deposits and the base effect, the growth rate increased. In March, new deposits increased by 857.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, affected by the proactive fiscal policy and the advance of fiscal expenditure, fiscal deposits decreased by 357.1 billion yuan year-on-year in March; The investment of enterprises is still in a wait-and-see attitude, and the deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 922.1 billion yuan year-on-year; Under the epidemic, residents' willingness to consume and buy houses was low, and residents' deposits increased by 762.3 billion yuan year-on-year. M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 has slightly expanded compared with the previous month. It is expected that the monetary policy will be stable and loose, and the subsequent economic vitality may be enhanced.
Risk tip: China's demand is lower than expected, and there is great pressure on steady growth.
