[overseas economy series] what is the difference between the Fed's current table contraction?

According to the minutes of the FOMC meeting in March, Fed officials attending the meeting agreed that taking into account the current situation of high inflation and tight labor market, the balance sheet should be contracted as soon as may. It is estimated that the maximum limit of monthly table reduction is US $95 billion (US $60 billion treasury bonds and US $35 billion MBS). Recently, Brad and many other officials have spoken frequently and are open to shrinking their watches as soon as possible. There are many differences compared with the previous rotation table that began in 2017. First, scale. The upper limit of this round of table reduction is expected to be twice that of the previous round, matching the current total asset scale of about US $9 trillion. The second is the way. The previous round of table shrinkage is carried out in a passive way (no longer continued), and the current round of table shrinkage is mainly carried out in a passive way, but it does not rule out active sales. The third is the rhythm. The rhythm of the scale reduction may be significantly faster than that of the previous round. Compared with the previous round, it took one year to reach the upper limit of the scale reduction. This round may be adjusted to the maximum limit within three months at the fastest. Fourth, the conditions are more mature. The establishment of the standing repo facility by the Federal Reserve this time will ensure sufficient market liquidity as far as possible. The Fed's table reduction operation has a more direct role in pushing up the long-term interest rate of US bonds. After the announcement of the minutes, the interest rate and term spread of 10-year US bonds have increased significantly. From the market performance during the last round of table contraction, the impact of table contraction on emerging markets may be greater than interest rate hike.