On April 11, 2022, the central bank released financial data. Our comments are as follows:
New social finance exceeded expectations, mainly supported by credit and government bonds
In March, all items of social finance increased year-on-year, and the structure was also improved compared with the previous month. Credit and government bonds were the main driving items, and non-standard also formed a positive pull on new social finance under the low base effect of last year. In addition, corporate bond financing was at a seasonal level (regardless of the extreme value in 2020). On the whole, the social finance data in March exceeded the market expectations, especially the new credit significantly exceeded the seasonal level, which also reflected the prominent effect of the policy; Under the front of financial development, government debt financing is still the main support of social finance.
The total amount of credit exceeded expectations, but the structure needs to be optimized
In March, the new credit supermarket market is expected, in which enterprise short-term loans and bill financing are still the main support, and the structure needs to be optimized. However, it should be noted that the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have increased year-on-year from a small increase in the previous month, which reflects the effect of policy credit relief to a certain extent, and the specific implementation is more or in infrastructure related financing. The credit data in March mainly reflects that the following problems still exist in the current economy: the epidemic situation is superimposed repeatedly, the demand is weak under the pressure of employment, the prosperity of the real estate sales market is still low, and the financing of enterprises still needs the guidance and support of policies.
The endogenous kinetic energy of the economy is still insufficient
The expansion of m2-m1 scissors difference in March reflects low economic activity, insufficient capital activity and internal energy. The growth rate of M1 is the same as that of last month, mainly because the current real estate sales market is still poor and residents' willingness to buy houses is not strong.
The year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits shows that fiscal expenditure has increased, which is also reflected in the upward trend of M2. In the future, with the active development of Finance and the implementation of special bond funds into the project, the Financial deposits may continue to be weaker than the same period last year.
The total amount is better than the structure, and loose can still be expected
The total amount of social finance data in March exceeded market expectations, but the structure still needs to be improved. Under the target of annual economic growth of 5.5%, superimposed with complex internal and external environmental impact, the probability of economic "sliding out" potential growth rate in the first quarter is high. Therefore, the total easing policy can still be expected. The key lies in whether to cut interest rates on April 15. After the boots are landed, we should mainly focus on the economic data and the changes in the rhythm and intensity of policy arrangements.
Risk tips: 1) policy uncertainty; 2) Fundamentals exceeded expectations; 3) Uncertainty of epidemic development; 4) Geopolitical conflict.
