"Pig oil", CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year
In March, CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, of which food prices fell by 1.5% and non food prices rose by 2.2%; CPI was flat month on month, with food prices down 1.2% and non food prices up 0.3%.
The sub item with the largest increase this month was transportation and communication, which was mainly caused by the sharp rise in the price of fuel for transportation vehicles. The geopolitical crisis leads to the rise of international energy prices, which is transmitted to the whole industrial chain, and the fuel for vehicles such as gasoline and diesel bears the brunt. In March, the price of vehicle fuel increased by 24.1% year-on-year, 7.1% month on month, and 22.6% year-on-year from January to March, which was the largest increase.
Pork prices continued to fall, down 9.3% month on month and 41.4% year-on-year, still at the bottom of the industry cycle. Affected by the epidemic and the fall in demand after the Spring Festival, the service price decreased by 0.2% month on month and increased by 1.1% year-on-year. At present, inflation is still in a controllable range. With the transmission of energy and commodity prices to the whole industrial chain, CPI is expected to continue to maintain a moderate upward trend.
The rise in commodity prices was the main factor in the month on month rise of PPI
In March, PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year and 1.1% month on month. The rise in international commodity prices was the main factor driving the month on month rise of PPI. The larger increases were the prices of oil and natural gas exploitation industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industry, up 14.1% and 7.9% respectively. The year-on-year increase of PPI fell for five consecutive months, mainly affected by the high base in the same period last year.
Ppi-cpi scissors difference narrowed for 5 consecutive months
In March, the scissors difference between PPI and CPI narrowed to 6.8 percentage points, falling for the fifth consecutive month. The decline of "scissors gap" helps to alleviate the cost pressure of industrial enterprises caused by the rise in commodity prices, which is a benign adjustment of the market. With the continuous introduction of the steady growth policy, the business environment of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, will be improved to a certain extent.
Inflationary pressures remain high this year
It is expected that as the rise of the CPI of pork comes out of the cycle, we will gradually weaken the inhibition of the CPI of pork. Energy prices are sensitive to changes in the international political situation. There is still no sign of decline in the short term and are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level. The rise in the prices of crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities will be gradually transmitted to the downstream. At present, the situation of "pig oil under the pig oil on the pig oil" has the probability of changing to "pig oil as above", and the inflationary pressure is still large this year.
Risk tips
The implementation effect of the policy was not as expected, the epidemic situation deteriorated and international relations deteriorated.
