In March, the total amount of new social financing was 4.65 trillion (the previous value was 1.19 trillion), an increase of 1273.8 billion yuan over the same period last year. The stock of social finance increased by 10.6% (the former value was 10.2%) year on year, and M2 increased by 9.7% (the former value was 9.2%) year on year. The rebound trend was obvious. M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year (the previous value was 4.7%), and the trend was flat.
Social finance rebounded significantly in March, exceeding market expectations. RMB loans, government bonds and off balance sheet financing jointly contributed. Among them, RMB loans increased by 3232.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 481.7 billion yuan, the value of government bonds in the current month was 705.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 392.1 billion yuan, and off balance sheet financing increased by 13.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 426.4 billion yuan.
The growth rate of M2 rebounded, while the growth rate of M1 leveled off. In March, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 rebounded from 9.2% to 9.7%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M1 was the same as that in February, at 4.7%.
In terms of structure, the enterprise sector has improved significantly, and the composition of residents is a drag. The year-on-year increase in short-term loans of enterprises is obvious, or it reflects that under the influence of the epidemic, enterprises rely on short-term loans, bills and other short-term financing turnover transition. Medium and long-term loans are still increasing slightly under the background of high base. As a representative of entity financing demand, its sustainability needs to be observed. The increase of residents’ medium and long-term loans and short-term loans was positive, but it increased less year-on-year under the high base. Among them, residents’ short-term loans increased by 384.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 139.4 billion, and medium and long-term loans increased by 373.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion. Short term loans are mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in China. Since March, the epidemic has been continuously disturbed. Under the prevention and control of many places, not only offline consumer services have been greatly impacted, but also residents’ income expectations have been adversely affected, suppressing residents’ short-term loans. In terms of medium and long-term loans, residents are still cautious. Although the loan interest rate of the first house continued to fall in March, many places successively liberalized the restrictions on sales, and the marginal improvement policy continued to advance, the real estate market is still in the recovery stage, and it still takes time for the boom to recover. In the short term, residents are still cautious at the financing end, and their consumption and house purchase preferences are not strong, making it difficult to achieve a higher than expected recovery in consumption. Waiting for the follow-up policies to add weight and care.
It is expected that the subsequent social finance and M2 shocks will rise. Under the high inhibition of consumption and the high disturbance of construction industry production caused by the possible epidemic in the second quarter, the follow-up steady growth policy and related credit need to be increased. In March, the value of government bonds in the current month was 705.1 billion, an increase of 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Since January, debt issuance has made a significant contribution and will also be the main contribution power in the follow-up. In the future, the policy level will continue to make efforts to stabilize the expectations of enterprises for future economic growth and improve the credit demand of enterprises. The 2022 government work report pointed out that we should strengthen the steady implementation of monetary policy, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and provide stronger support for the real economy. In this context, it is noteworthy to expand the scale of credit and guide the rhythm and amount of credit funds to small and micro enterprises, speed up the issuance of government bonds and increase the support of credit to the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises at the policy level, the marginal relaxation of real estate regulation (residents’ medium and long-term loans), and the driving force of real financing demand led by manufacturing industry (the sustainability of the recovery of medium and long-term loans of enterprises).
Risk warning: monetary policy is too tight, economic repair is less than expected, and credit risk. Risk warning: monetary policy is too tight, economic repair is less than expected, and credit risk.
