Production pressure
In March, the output of crude steel decreased by 10.64% year-on-year, narrower than that of the previous month; The load rate of PTA industrial chain decreased by 5.38%, and the decline was expanded; The operating rate of automobile tires decreased by 15.01%, and the decline narrowed. Although affected by the epidemic, production is under pressure, but production indicators are differentiated and have not fallen to the ground. In the first week of April, production continued to differentiate, and the operating rate of automobile tires decreased by 21.74% year-on-year. However, the load rate of PTA industrial chain decreased by 3.84%, and the decline narrowed.
The decline in real estate sales narrowed slightly
In March, affected by the epidemic, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 48.34% year-on-year, and the decline expanded; The wholesale sales of car manufacturers of the association decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, and the retail sales of cars decreased by 17%, both of which were lower than that of the previous month; The average daily passenger volume of Jiucheng subway decreased by 29.32% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than that of last month. Overall, consumption growth is expected to decline significantly in March. Affected by the epidemic, the container throughput of the eight hub ports decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, the growth rate was significantly lower than that of last month, and the export growth rate is expected to decline. In the first week of April, the epidemic continued to curb demand, and the average daily passenger volume of Jiucheng subway decreased by 45.72% year-on-year. However, the margin of real estate consumption improved, and the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 37.44% year-on-year, narrowing the decline.
Rising price growth
In March, food prices rose 0.12% month on month, down 11.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, the growth rate of non food prices increased, and the year-on-year growth rate of high-frequency consumer prices increased by 0.6 percentage points. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in March will increase. The year-on-year growth rate of high-frequency production prices also increased slightly. It is worth observing whether the year-on-year growth rate of PPI can continue the downward trend since November 2021. In the first week of April, food prices increased by 2.91% month on month and decreased by 3.73% year-on-year. The growth rate was higher than that of the previous month. Meanwhile, the growth rate of non food prices increased, the year-on-year growth rate of high-frequency consumer prices increased by 1.1 percentage points, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise.
Improvement of monetary conditions
In March, the average value of dr007 was flat in the previous month, the monetary conditions were still good, and the M2 growth rate was still rising. The year-on-year interest rate spread of dr007 has increased, and the monetary pulse kinetic energy, the leading indicator of M2 growth, has weakened. Bill interest rate and bill interest margin decreased month on month, and the growth rate of social finance increased weakly. The year-on-year change of bill interest margin also means that the credit pulse is weakened. In addition, the epidemic may also affect the financing business. In the first week of April, dr007 went down, monetary conditions improved, and M2 growth increased. The year-on-year interest margin of dr007 also decreased, and the monetary pulse kinetic energy, the leading indicator of M2 growth, increased. The bill interest margin rises, and the growth rate of social finance has an upward momentum. The year-on-year decrease of bill interest margin also means that the credit pulse is enhanced.
The overall stability of RMB exchange rate
Affected by the epidemic, China is at a disadvantage compared with the U.S. economic accident index. At the same time, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has also narrowed, and the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation has increased slightly, but it is stable on the whole.
Risk tips: the epidemic exceeded expectations and geopolitics exceeded expectations
