Strategic observation and market outlook: a risk and triple opportunity
One risk: the divergence of monetary policies between China and the United States has led to a significant narrowing of the interest rate gap between the two countries, which has continued to narrow rapidly to close to 0 in the near future, which has also triggered concerns about capital outflows in the recent market. However, in the context of the rapid rise of US bond interest rates recently, the phenomenon of capital outflow has not intensified. This may be mainly due to the fact that the real interest rate difference between the two countries is still in a high position, and the RMB assets are still relatively attractive to the US dollar. It can also be seen from the recent small rather than large fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate that the narrowing of the interest rate difference may not cause a large outflow of funds.
Triple opportunities: high prosperity, anti inflation and steady growth
(1) look for the main line of high prosperity from the first quarter report, mainly including emerging industries related to price rise and high prosperity, and some consumer segments;
(2) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price rise gives birth to multiple opportunities, including chemical fertilizer, seed industry with improved efficiency and agricultural machinery, livestock and poultry breeding and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production and traders; (3) Steady growth superimposes undervalued value, and the real estate chain shows a diffusion trend. Looking ahead, banks, steel
Building decoration, mining, non bank finance, household appliances, real estate, chemical industry and other sectors benefiting from steady growth and undervalued value are still or are expected to obtain excess returns. Construction machinery and other sectors related to steady growth may also deserve special attention.
Global asset review
1) bond market: US bond interest rates rose significantly, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed significantly; 2) Exchange rate: the US dollar remains strong; 3) Stock market: the stock indexes of major countries in the world fell more and rose less; 4) Bulk commodities: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose sharply.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks; Intensifying geopolitical conflicts; The economic recovery is less than expected; The steady growth policy was less than expected
