China: the steady growth policy has been gradually increased and the policy bottom has been consolidated. In December 2021, the Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference were held successively, and "stability" became the core topic. Since 2022, relevant policies of various central departments have been issued to stabilize market confidence: the government work report on March 5 first mentioned "the establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund"; On March 16, the gold stability meeting was held, and the Ministry of Finance and the central bank also spoke on the same day. The expectation of maintaining stability was strengthened again; On April 7, the central bank issued the draft of the financial stability law for comments, and the financial legislation was gradually promoted. In addition, local real estate policies have been marginally loose, loan interest rates have been lowered in some cities, and the speed of loan approval has been accelerated. More than 20 cities (incomplete statistics) have introduced measures such as reducing the proportion of down payment, canceling sales and purchase restrictions, and increasing the amount of provident fund loans. The current high-frequency data show that the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in the third tier cities in 2022 is lower than that in 2020, and local policies are expected to strengthen stability maintenance. At present, China's economy is in the transitional stage of reverse cycle regulation in stage 1 and recovery in stage 2 of the Pringle cycle. Chaotic cloud ferry, ERP high, A-share allocation value highlights, first stable and then successful, high dividend strategy as the shield, small cap growth, specializing in special new attacks.
Fiscal expenditure is expected to accelerate the implementation, the construction of municipal parks and transportation account for a relatively high proportion, and the sustainability of new infrastructure and clean energy projects is strong. 1) The progress of special bond issuance this year is ahead, similar to that in 2019; From January to February, the financial deposit increased by 1185.1 billion yuan compared with December. The increase amount reached the highest in the past five years, and the surplus financial resources were abundant. The decision-making level required to form the physical workload as soon as possible, increase efforts in time, and study the new plan. The financial expenditure is expected to accelerate the landing. At present, traditional infrastructure is still the main part of infrastructure construction. Municipal park construction and transportation account for a high proportion of the new special debt in 2022q1. It is recommended to pay attention to it. 2) Combined with the government work report, the deployment of the national Standing Committee and the direction of credit investment, new infrastructure such as digital information construction and green projects such as clean energy are expected to be more sustainable.
Overseas: Europe and the United States overweight sanctions, the Federal Reserve may start to shrink its watch in May. 1) Europe and the United States continue to increase sanctions against Russia. On the 6th local time, the US Senate reached an agreement to cancel the normal trade relations between the country and Russia. On April 7, representatives of 27 member states of the European Union decided to impose a new round of sanctions on Russia, including an embargo on Russian coal. 2) The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March showed that events such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had an impact on the economy, and only raised interest rates by 25bp in March; In May, the Federal Reserve has a high probability of raising interest rates by 50bp, and there may be another 50bp interest rate increase after May; The Fed's table reduction ceiling is 95 billion per month, which can be implemented as early as after the interest rate meeting in May.
Market: the external situation is disturbed, the market is closed on holidays, and the capital sentiment is low. The net outflow of funds from the north this week was - 6.6 billion yuan. After the significant recovery last week and the net inflow exceeded 20 billion yuan, it turned to net outflow again under the influence of external tensions. The follow-up market changes still need to keep an eye on the latest progress of China us, Russia and Ukraine relations; The overall net inflow of Liangrong was RMB 1.3 billion, and the transaction volume accounted for 7% of the total a transaction volume. There was no further warming trend in sentiment. In the direction of the industry, architectural decoration has won the consensus of the two capital subjects, while pharmaceutical biology is facing common sales. The two capital entities are still in a divergent situation as a whole, including power equipment, banking and other industries.
Industry allocation suggestions: focus on strategic security and grasp the opportunities of steady growth, strategic resources and independent control. a. Policy driven steady growth: 1) real estate development; 2) Building construction; 3) Consumption of building materials. b. Strategic resources: 1) coal; 2) Oil and gas, oil service and oil transportation; 3) Gold; 4) Industrial metals; 5) Energy metals; 6) Grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . c. Self controlled long-term track: 1) wind power & Photovoltaic & nuclear power; 2) Semiconductor equipment and materials; 3) Military industry.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the persistence of inflation exceeded expectations, the tightening of liquidity exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
