Overview of Views:
The demand for real estate is still uncertain and needs to be improved. The relaxation of the real estate policy of "implementing policies for the city" continues, but we think it will take time for the real estate data to improve. For the furniture industry, which is greatly affected by the sales data of new houses, the overall demand needs to be improved. Recently, the number of leading enterprises receiving orders has maintained a high increase. We believe that we can pay attention to the leading enterprises with strong performance certainty and lay out undervalued furniture enterprises in advance.
The profitability of the paper sector can be improved, and the focus is on it. The disturbance of pulp supply side continues, and the pulp price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The peak season of cultural paper and the improvement of import and export support the paper price. With the self-sufficiency of pulp, the leader stabilizes the rise of cost, superimposes Q1 energy cost or month on month decline, and the profit is expected to be repaired. Special paper market segments with high prosperity have strong demand toughness and good competition pattern. They are optimistic about the implementation of price increase and improving profitability. Pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and leading special paper enterprises.
Epidemic control affects short-term retail, and the resilience of home textiles may be prominent. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in various places since March, the offline retail of clothing will be significantly affected under the seal, and the online sales will also be affected by the poor logistics, resulting in obvious pressure on the industry. We believe that the seasonality of home textile products is not obvious, and the futures based model is less affected by the epidemic, and the income performance of home visiting companies is less disturbed, which is expected to show good resilience in the quarterly report.
Market Review
This week, the textile and garment industry rose - 1.11%, light industry manufacturing rose - 1.36%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose - 0.94%.
The rise and fall of textile clothing sub sectors were as follows: Accessories 2.06%, clocks and jewelry 1.67%, cotton textile - 0.31%, printing and dyeing - 1.24%, non sports clothing - 1.77%, shoes, hats and others - 2.02%, home textile - 2.95% and other textiles - 3.23%. The rise and fall of each sub sector of light industry manufacturing are as follows: customized household 2.21%, sanitary products 1.26%, printing 0.39%, bulk paper - 0.05%, ceramic tile floor - 0.46%, entertainment products - 0.85%, finished household - 1.48%, metal packaging - 1.59%, special paper - 1.81%, plastic packaging - 3.0, paper packaging - 4.37%.
Key tracking:
[ Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) | annual report] the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 17.47 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 25.40% (excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, a year-on-year increase of 34.09%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.768 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.34% (excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, a year-on-year increase of 57.55%). The company sold 210million pairs of sports shoes, a year-on-year increase of 29.46%; That is, ASP denominated in US dollars increased by about 3.5%.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Li Ning, Shenzhou International, Minhua holdings, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816)
Risk tip: the macroeconomic downturn affects purchasing power, the epidemic development exceeds expectations, and policy risks.
