Liquidity: the growth difference between M1 and M2 in February was – 4.5 percentage points. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in February 2022 was 51.44, a month on month increase of + 6.57%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Composite Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 4.5 percentage points in February 2022, with a month on month increase of + 7.2 percentage points.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises in late March was + 5.41% month on month. (1) Price changes this week: thread + 0.00%, cement price index – 0.61%, rubber – 2.26%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 22.91%, iron ore + 1.21%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 1.19pct, + 3.19pct, + 0.80pct and -9.80pct respectively; (3) In late March 2022, the average daily output of crude steel of key enterprises was 2.601 million tons, a month on month increase of + 5.41%. Real estate completion chain: the profits of titanium dioxide and flat glass are at the lowest level in the same period of three years. (1) Titanium this week
The prices of white powder and glass were + 0.00% and + 0.00% month on month respectively; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 710 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 24.90%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 201 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of + 29.68%. Industrial product chain: the moving average of daily average sales of passenger car wholesale and retail is at the highest level in the same period of 5 years.
(1) the price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 0.71%, + 0.12%, – 4.09% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 15.93%, – 0.12%, – 26.43%; (2) In March 2022, the national PMI new order index was 48.80%, with a month on month ratio of – 1.9 percentage points; (3) This week, the average daily sales volume of passenger car wholesale and retail was 120000 in four weeks, with a month on month increase of + 14.61%.
Subdivided varieties: the prices of molybdenum concentrate and prebaked anode reached new highs since 2012 and 2017 respectively.
(1) graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25500 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 4504.5 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 6.02%; (2) Nickel: the price of this week is 222500 yuan / ton, with a month on week ratio of – 0.63%; (3) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 7100 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 2.90%; (4) It is estimated that the price of aluminum is – 36.09 yuan / ton, excluding the ring tax, which is – 36.5% of the price of aluminum; (5) This week, the Platts price index was 159.85 US dollars / ton, and the comprehensive gross profit of the iron and steel industry was 347 yuan / ton, down from – 5.89% last week; (6) The price of molybdenum concentrate was 2800 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.32%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread fell back to 160 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.06 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar on Friday is 160 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 570 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 30 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.10; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 0.00% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 100 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the CCFI index fell sharply to the level of September 2021 for two consecutive months. 1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 311775 points this week, with a chain comparison of – 2.72%; (2) In March 2022, the value of new orders of global PMI was 51.40%, with a chain comparison of – 2.10 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 1.06%. The best performing periodic sector was Pu steel (+ 7.30%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of Pu steel and industrial metals relative to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) were 40.27% and 86.67% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.54, with the highest value of 0.82 since 2013 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: under the policy of “steady growth”, the marginal improvement of demand in the steel industry is expected to increase, and the reduction of crude steel production is expected to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , 60019; The price of prebaked anode continues to reach a new high since 2017. It is recommended to pay attention to Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
