Real economy: this week, the marginal pressure of epidemic spread eased, and most industrial operating rates and inventory indicators were differentiated; The sales of commercial housing and the primary land market are still depressed; The spot price of black commodities is still strong, the futures price is differentiated, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price is weak as a whole. 1) From last Saturday to this Friday (April 2 to April 8), a total of 9535 newly confirmed cases were added in 27 provinces, cities and autonomous regions such as Jilin and Shanghai, 10905 more than 24 provinces, cities and autonomous regions from March 26 to April 1. The regional spread but the number of confirmed cases decreased. 2) Industrial operating rate differentiation. Among them, the operating rates of Tangshan blast furnace and coking enterprises related to black goods increased by 2.4 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively month on month. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt units and mill operation rate related to infrastructure construction increased by 0.8 percentage points and decreased by 2.3 percentage points respectively month on month, significantly lower than the average level in the same period of the past three years. The operating rates of semi steel tires and all steel tires related to the automobile industry chain decreased by 7.4 and 9.8 percentage points respectively month on month. 3) The finished products are accumulated in the warehouse, and the raw materials go to the warehouse. Among the finished products, the stocks of screw thread steel factory + Social Library and electrolytic aluminum increased by 1.1% and 1.3% month on month respectively. In the raw material inventory, the port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.1% compared with last week, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 14.6 days, down 0.50 days compared with last week. 4) The marginal sales of commercial housing has warmed up, and the land market is still depressed. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 39.9% month on month. There was a seasonal decline after the festival in the same period of previous years, but the decline rate this week was larger than that in the same period of history; The absolute level of commercial housing sales area is only 50% of the average in the past three years. Last week, the primary land market was still depressed. The land supply area and land transaction area of 100 cities decreased by 29.8% and 20.3% month on month respectively, and the absolute level was 57.8% and 45.9% of the average value of the past three years; The land premium rate of Baicheng transaction decreased to 1.0%. 5) The spot price of black commodities is still strong, and the futures price is differentiated. The spot price of thermal coal was not updated this week, and the spot price of coking coal was flat. The spot prices of coke, rebar and iron ore rose by 1.2%, 1.2% and 2.4% respectively; The futures prices of coking coal, coke and iron ore rose by 0.9%, 3.2% and 1.9% respectively, while the futures of thermal coal and rebar fell by 1.3% and 0.8% respectively. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index fell 0.7% month on month. Among the main Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 4.5% month on month; The wholesale price of fruits rose 3.3% month on month; The wholesale price of eggs rose 3.1% month on month. The wholesale price of pork fell 0.2% month on month to 18.22 yuan / kg on Friday.
Capital market: this week, China's monetary policy is loose, real estate policy continues to relax and infrastructure investment is expected to rise. The speeches of overseas Fed officials and the minutes of FOMC meeting in March are more hawkish. The bond market is stronger, the value of the stock market is stronger than that of the small cap growth sector, the dollar index is further stronger, and the RMB depreciates slightly. Specifically, in the money market, R007 and dr007 closed at 2.01% and 1.94% respectively on Friday, down 14.9bp and 2.1bp respectively from last Friday. In the bond market, the yield of main term treasury bonds fell this week, and the term spread of 10y-1y treasury bonds was 2.8bp wider than last week. In the stock market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index with large market value style closed up slightly, while the gem index and Kechuang 50 with small market growth style fell significantly. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 99.84 on Friday, up 1.3% from last Friday. This week, the onshore RMB depreciated by 0.07% against the US dollar and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.02%.
Risk tip: the steady growth is not as strong as expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
