Production side observation:
This week (4.4-4.10), the steel operating rate and inventory generally increased compared with last week, and the rebar operating rate rebounded, but it is still at a seasonal low; The operating rate of coal decreased slightly; The operating rate of chemical industry has been greatly differentiated, PTA operating rate has rebounded to a seasonal high, the operating rate of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased significantly month on month, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt unit is still at a seasonal low; The operating rate of automobile tires fell. On the whole, the differentiation trend of project operating rate still exists, and the prosperity is slightly lower than that of last week.
Demand side observation:
This week (4.4-4.10), the real estate did not continue the recovery trend of last week, and the listed price index of second-hand houses in all tier cities fell to varying degrees; The prosperity of infrastructure construction is basically the same as that of last week; The pressure of demand contraction increased, and affected by the epidemic, the month on month and year-on-year decline of subway passenger volume in Shanghai expanded; The export boom continued to decline; The number of new cases decreased compared with last week (3.28-4.3).
Price trend:
In terms of prices this week (4.4-4.10), prices rose slightly, and the average wholesale price of pork was the same as last week; International crude oil prices fell slightly compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase narrowed.
Risk tips:
Policy uncertainty; Fundamentals exceeded expectations
