ECI index: as of April 10, 2022, the ECI supply index this week was 49.86%, up 0.05% from last week; The ECI demand index was 49.17%, down 0.23% from last week. In terms of sub items, the ECI investment index was 48.62%, down 0.70% from last week; The ECI consumption index was 49.23%, down 0.01% from last week; The ECI export index was 49.51%, down 0.11% from last week.
Supply side: important high-frequency indicators, including blast furnace operating rate and coke oven productivity operating rate, show a trend of recovery, but the vehicle freight flow index continues to decline this week, and the recovery of the transportation side is still slow, which may hinder the recovery of industrial production.
Demand side: judging from the transaction data of building materials, as of April 8, the trading volume of rebar of major traders in China was 156775 tons, a decrease of 38.06% over the same period last year; From the inventory data, the market ordering enthusiasm is low, and the inventory backlog is obvious.
Eli index: as of April 10, 2022, the Eli index was - 0.85% this week, down 0.08% from last week. Under the risk that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates continuously in May and June, April is the time window to maximize the effect of aggregate easing.
Risk warning: the uncertainty of epidemic situation is still high; The change of monetary policy is less than expected; The economy fell more than expected in the first quarter.
