Event overview
On April 11, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the CPI and PPI data in March 2022. The year-on-year CPI was 1.5%, the expected value was 1.3%, and the previous value was 0.9%; PPI was 8.3% year-on-year, the expected value was 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.8%;
Investment view
The rise of bulk prices is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI, and the downward exploration of pork prices promotes the moderate upward trend of CPI
Although the month on month growth of PPI has expanded due to the rise of international bulk prices, the overall downward trend of PPI is still difficult to change under the influence of high base; The expansion of non food price increase led to the year-on-year rise of CPI, but the year-on-year rise of CPI was still relatively mild due to the continued downward exploration of pork prices. In our previous report, how does rising oil prices affect inflation Taking into account the rise in oil prices and the impact of various factors, the PPI and CPI for the whole year of 2022 were recalculated: under medium circumstances, the PPI continued to decline in the first half of the year, and gradually rebounded after Q4 bottomed out, with a year-on-year center of 4.7% and a low of 0.6%; The overall CPI in the first half of the year is still relatively mild, with a probability rate of less than 2.5%. Affected by the stabilization and recovery of pork prices in the second half of the year, the year-on-year increase may expand, with a peak of about 3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.
In March, CPI rose flat month on month and expanded year-on-year; The year-on-year decline of food narrowed and the year-on-year increase of non food increased. In March, CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year-on-year decline of food and the year-on-year increase of non food were the main reasons for the year-on-year rise of CPI in March. Food prices fell by - 1.5% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.28 percentage points; Non food prices rose by 2.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI to rise by 1.77 percentage points. CPI rose from 0.6% last month to flat.
Food prices turned negative month on month, and non food prices fell month on month
Food prices fell by 1.2% month on month, up from 1.4% last month. The main reason for the decline in food prices is that pork prices have increased month on month, and the prices of aquatic products and fresh fruits have turned negative month on month. Affected by the fall in consumer demand and sufficient supply after the festival, pork prices fell by 9.3%, an increase of 4.7% over the previous month. In addition, the prices of chicken, duck, beef, mutton, aquatic products and fresh fruits also decreased in varying degrees, with a decrease of 1.0% - 2.3%. However, affected by the rise in international food prices and the epidemic in China, the prices of grain and edible oil increased by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Non food prices rose 0.3% month on month, down 0.1% from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.25 percentage points. Service prices turned negative month on month, which was the main reason for the decline in non food prices. Affected by the falling demand after the festival and the epidemic situation in China, the service price changed from flat last month to a decrease of 0.2%, of which the air ticket, film and performance ticket, transportation rental fee and tourism price decreased by 10.0%, 7.6%, 3.5% and 2.6% respectively. The price of industrial consumer goods rose by 1.1%, an increase of 0.3% over the previous month, mainly related to the impact of the rise in crude oil prices, of which the prices of gasoline, diesel and LPG rose by 7.2%, 7.8% and 6.9% respectively. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices was 1.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month.
In March, PPI continued to fall year-on-year, and the rise of bulk prices led to the expansion of PPI month on month growth
In March, PPI increased by 8.3% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the means of production increased by 10.7% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points; The means of living increased by 0.9% year-on-year, the same as that of the previous month. PPI was 1.1% month on month, with an increase of 0.6% over the previous month.
Driven by the continuous upward trend of international bulk prices, the month on month increase of PPI in March further expanded. Among them, the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 14.1%, the price of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry increased by 7.9%, the price of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 2.0%, and the price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 1.8%; The price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.7%. In total, the above industries affected the rise of PPI by about 0.77 percentage points, accounting for 70% of the total increase. In addition, the prices of coal and steel have also increased. The prices of coal mining and washing industry have increased by 2.5%, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry have increased by 1.4%.
