Event overview
On April 11, 2022, the people's Bank of China released the financial data for March 2022. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, expected to be 2.64 trillion yuan, up from 1.23 trillion yuan; Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, with an expected 3.63 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 1.19 trillion yuan; The stock of social finance was 10.6% year-on-year, and the former value was 10.2%; M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, and the former value was 9.2%; M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month.
Core view
In March, social finance and credit both strengthened, significantly higher than market expectations, but the loan structure still needs to be improved. On the enterprise side, short-term loans and bills increased significantly, and the characteristics of bank credit impulse at the end of the quarter were obvious; On the residential side, short-term, medium and long-term loans still increased significantly year-on-year. The financing needs of enterprises and residents are still not strong. The national standing committee meeting held on April 6 pointed out that at present, "the world economic recovery has slowed down, the global grain, energy and other commodity markets have fluctuated sharply, China's epidemic has occurred frequently recently, the difficulties of market players have increased significantly, the smooth economic cycle has encountered some constraints, and the new downward pressure has further increased". In terms of monetary policy, it was mentioned that "we should make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy". Therefore, we expect that the subsequent easing of monetary policy can still be expected, and refinancing and other structural tools or main means.
The new credit exceeded expectations, and the loan structure still needs to be improved
In terms of total amount, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan in March, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation (wind's consensus expectation of 2.64 trillion yuan), an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium - and long-term loans amounted to 1.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 235.6 billion yuan.
In terms of structure: the loan structure at the enterprise side still needs to be improved, and short-term loans and bills are the main support items; On the residential side, short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased significantly year-on-year. 1) In March, corporate loans amounted to 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 880 billion yuan year-on-year. However, the loan structure needs to be further improved, with short-term loans and bills as the main support. Enterprise short-term loans amounted to 808.9 billion yuan, an increase of 434.1 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months; Bill financing continued to maintain a high growth, with an increase of 471.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and the characteristics of bank credit impulse at the end of the quarter were obvious. Medium and long-term loans amounted to 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8 billion yuan. Although there was an improvement over the previous month, it was still significantly lower than the year-on-year scale of short-term loans and bills. The continuous short-term loan structure shows that the financing demand of enterprises is still not strong. 2) In March, the resident loan was 753.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 394 billion yuan. Among them, residents' short-term loans were 374.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 139.4 billion yuan, indicating that residents' consumption is still weak under the disturbance of the epidemic; Residents' medium and long-term loans amounted to 373.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease for four consecutive months, indicating that the real estate relaxation policies successively issued by some cities are still difficult to alleviate the weakening trend of residents' expectations for the real estate market. In addition, the multi-point outbreak of the recent epidemic has also restrained the demand for house purchase to a certain extent. According to the data released by Kerui, the monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises increased by - 52.7% year-on-year in March, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared with February.
The new social finance increased significantly, and the government debt was the main support
In terms of total amount, social finance increased significantly in March, with a new social finance of 4.65 trillion yuan (wind unanimously expected 3.63 trillion yuan), an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of stock social finance was 10.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month.
Structure: new government bonds and new credit are the main support items. 1) RMB loans increased by 323 million yuan according to the criteria of social finance, an increase of 481.7 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly related to the increase of enterprise loans year-on-year. 2) Direct financing continued to improve, with net corporate bond financing of 389.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7 billion yuan year-on-year; Stock financing was 95.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5 billion yuan year-on-year; 3) The net financing of government bonds was 705.2 billion yuan, an increase of 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main support of social finance. It is related to the large issuance scale of local special bonds in March. According to wind data, the net financing scale of local government bonds in March reached 503.1 billion yuan; 4) In terms of non-standard, the new non-standard in March decreased by 426.2 billion yuan year-on-year: the new entrusted loans decreased by 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year, the new trust loans decreased by 153.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and the new undiscounted acceptance bills decreased by 258.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
M1 was flat year-on-year, M2 was up year-on-year, and the scissors difference narrowed
In March, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The sharp recovery of social finance growth led to the year-on-year rise of M2.
In March, the growth rate of M1 was 4.7%, the same as that of the previous month. M1 is flat, M2 is upward, and the m1-m2 scissors difference has expanded to - 5.0%.
Risk tips
Economic activity has changed more than expected.
