Macro Daily: the Fed may start to shrink its table from May, and global risk appetite continues to cool

1. Important macro news and events:

According to the minutes of the March meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve believes that it may be appropriate to reduce the asset ceiling of US $95 billion (US $60 billion treasury bonds + US $35 billion MBS) per month, and supports the phased adjustment in three months or moderately longer to reach the upper limit, which may start as early as may. Many Fed officials said they might need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points once or several times. If it were not for the conflict in Ukraine, many Fed members might ask for a 50 basis point increase in interest rates in March.

The United States announced additional sanctions against Russian financial institutions and the daughter of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In addition to Putin's daughter, the new round of sanctions also included the Russian Foreign Minister and his wife. U.S. officials said the United States would impose a comprehensive blockade on Russia's largest financial institution, the savings bank of the Russian Federation, and its largest private bank, alpha bank. According to the US side, the United States has now completely blocked "more than two-thirds" of the Russian banking system. In addition, the United States, the European Union and G7 countries will jointly announce a ban on new investment in Russia.

Michelle, President of the European Council, said that sooner or later the EU needs to take measures against Russia's natural gas and oil. Ukrainian President Zelensky called on the EU to adopt "tougher" sanctions, saying that the natural gas and oil embargo was a necessary measure to stop Putin.

International Energy Agency Director Birol said that the member countries of the international energy agency would coordinate the release of 120 million barrels of oil, half of which (60 million barrels) came from the United States and the other half from other member countries. 60 million barrels are included in the 180 million barrels previously announced by the United States, that is, the scale of oil released by the United States independently is 120 million barrels, and the total amount of oil released worldwide will reach 240 million barrels.

Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Chairman Islam said that if the parties to the comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear issue negotiate and reach an agreement, Iran will reduce the number of centrifuges and uranium enrichment level. The Iran nuclear agreement reached in 2015 limits the number of centrifuges in Iran. If the Iranian nuclear negotiations in Vienna, the capital of Austria, reach an agreement, this restriction will be implemented.

According to CCTV news, Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting pointed out that we should make timely and flexible use of a variety of monetary policy tools, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy. We will strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

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