Macro balance sheet: Caixin PMI fell significantly, and the national standing committee released policy expectations

Macro market:

[central bank] on April 6, in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the central bank launched a 7-day open market reverse repurchase of 10 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding, with an interest rate of 2.10%. On the same day, 150 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, realizing a net return of 140 billion yuan.

[central bank] on April 6, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which decided to implement a phased policy of delaying the payment of pension insurance premiums for industries in extreme poverty, and strengthen unemployment insurance support for job stabilization and training; Deploy and timely use monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy.

[finance] on April 6, the main contracts of various varieties of treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. The ten-year main contract rose by 0.08%; The five-year main contract increased by 0.06%; The main force in the two-year period rose by 0.02%. The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds generally declined, and the medium and long-term bonds performed well. The yield of 10-year Treasury bond 220003 decreased by 1.45bp, and the yield of 5-year treasury bond 220002 decreased by 2.25bp; The yield of 10-year Guokai active bond 220205 decreased by 2.98bp, and the yield of 5-year Guokai active bond 220203 decreased by 2.5bp.

[finance] on April 6, the interest rate in the money market rose across the board, and a large amount of money was returned from the open market. The one-day interbank borrowing between banks and depositors was reported at 1.8589%, up 54.27 basis points; The 7-day report was 2.0047%, up 15.56 basis points; The 14 day report was 1.9968%, up 5.27 basis points; The one-month report was 2.3107%, up 31.07 basis points. The one-day varieties of inter bank pledged repo were reported at 1.8282%, up 54.25 basis points; The 7-day report was 1.9733%, up 18.06 basis points; The 14 day report was 1.9814%, up 10.36 basis points; The one-month report was 2.0493%, up 15.99 basis points.

[enterprise] on April 6, most of the yields of credit bonds of various maturities fell, with a decline of more than 2 basis points for the three-year term, and a transaction of more than 100 billion yuan throughout the day. Among them, real estate bonds rose in a large area. A total of 1372 inter-bank and exchange credit bonds (corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium notes, short-term financing and directional instruments) were traded, with a total turnover of 102541 billion yuan. Among them, 792 credit bonds rose, 100 credit bonds were flat, and 447 credit bonds fell.

[enterprise] in March, Caixin China's service industry PMI recorded 42.0, down 8.2 percentage points from February, the lowest since March 2020. In March, Caixin China's comprehensive PMI decreased by 6.2 percentage points to 43.9, the lowest since March 2020, indicating that the recent epidemic has led to the contraction of enterprise production and operation activities again.

[residents] on April 6, the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities and first tier cities was - 14% and the area of commercial housing transactions was - 16% compared with the previous day; The number of commercial housing transactions in second tier cities was - 29% compared with the previous day, and the transaction area of commercial housing was - 28% compared with the previous day; The number of commercial housing transactions in the third tier cities was - 67% compared with the previous day, and the transaction area of commercial housing was - 66% compared with the previous day.

Recent focus: Overseas tightening monetary policy more than expected constraints on China's monetary policy

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