Key points:
The economy continued to be depressed during the Qingming holiday
The economic performance of the Qingming holiday this year is sluggish. From the dimensions of transportation, film box office and tourism consumption, the data is significantly lower than that of the same period in recent two years. From the consumption performance of the Qingming holiday, we can also see that the current economic downward pressure is great. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the way of local sacrifice and sweeping has also changed from traditional offline sacrifice and sweeping to online cloud sacrifice and sweeping.
The upgrading of sealing control has further put pressure on the economy
Recently, affected by the outbreak of Omicron virus, the number of infected people across the country has increased sharply, among which Shanghai, Jilin and other places have the most severe situation. Among them, 19660 local asymptomatic infections have been added in Shanghai, contributing 90.55% of the new asymptomatic people. At present, in the face of the spread of Omicron, China is still implementing the anti epidemic strategy of dynamic clearing. With the increase of the number of infected people, the sealing and control measures have been further strengthened, resulting in further pressure on the economy and even the suspension of some provinces and cities.
Taking Shanghai as an example, with the outbreak of the epidemic at the end of March, Shanghai's anti epidemic strategy has also changed from precise prevention and control in the early stage to grid screening, and then to the "Yuanyang seal" in Pudong, Puxi, to the current closure in the actual sense, which has a great impact on Shanghai's economy and people's livelihood. As a first tier megacity in the country, Shanghai has made the best contribution to the national finance. At the same time, Shanghai is also an important port city in the world, and the comprehensive blockade will lead to port congestion and have a huge negative impact on the global supply chain.
The national standing committee will propose another easing policy, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can be expected
The economic shutdown in big cities has undoubtedly further exacerbated the current macroeconomic pressure, especially the survival pressure faced by small and medium-sized enterprises and offline service industries. Therefore, in this context, Premier Li Keqiang decided to implement the phased deferred payment of old-age insurance premiums for extremely poor industries at the executive meeting of the State Council held on April 6, and strengthen the support of unemployment insurance for job stabilization and training; Deploy and timely use monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy.
From the signal released by the national standing committee, the implementation of more loose monetary policy tools is expected. At the end of last year, the central bank stated that monetary tools should come out quickly and early to stabilize market expectations. However, at present, the effect of continuous interest rate hikes at the end of last year has been marginal weakened, and the LPR interest rate has remained unchanged for two consecutive months, so the real economy urgently needs to open the money gate. The national standing committee meeting stressed the need to "timely and flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools", "strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy", and implement the deferred payment policy of endowment insurance premiums for catering, retail, tourism, civil aviation, highway, waterway and railway transportation and other industries in extreme poverty. Judging from this, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in the short term in the future may be a high probability event.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation in China continues; China's policy exceeded expectations; The Fed raised interest rates more than expected.
