Industry tracking
The US inflation index continued to rise, the geopolitical turmoil in Russia and Ukraine, and the volatility in the financial market continued to intensify. In March 2022, the NASDAQ biological index has warmed up recently, but the outlook for the whole year is still uncertain. As of March 31, 2022, the NASDAQ biological index has fallen by 13% this year, the S & P 500 index has fallen by 6% and the NASDAQ index has fallen by 10%.
Affected by the continuous suppression of relevant industrial policies and repeated epidemics, the Hang Seng health care index continued to be depressed in 2022, and the Hang Seng health care index lost to the Hang Seng Index in March. According to wind statistics, the Hang Seng health care index fell by more than 7% in March, but underperformed the Hang Seng Index by 4.6%. In 2022, centralized mining will “speed up and expand the area”. It is expected that the scope and variety of centralized mining will continue to expand and the price will continue to decline.
Covid-19 strain Xe appeared in many places. The British health and safety agency warned that there were signs of community transmission. We continue to be optimistic about the industrial chain of oral covid-19 drugs. As of March 31, the British health and safety agency has released a report that 637 cases of Xe strain infection have been reported in the UK. The earliest sample date is January 19 this year. It is said that the transmission of Xe strain has increased by 10% again. In 2022, we continue to be optimistic about the industrial chain related to oral covid-19 small molecule drugs; With the popularity of covid-19 vaccination, covid-19 vaccine business of many pharmaceutical enterprises will begin to show an inflection point of negative growth month on month in 2022.
Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (6821. HK) the annual performance growth in 2021 hit a five-year record high, with orders on hand of about 12 billion yuan. In 2021, the revenue was 4.639 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45%, in line with market expectations. The gross profit margin of the company has decreased from 46.6% in 2020 to 44.3%. Due to the impact of exchange and the income structure in the clinical stage, the gross profit margin has decreased. However, according to the latest three commercialized orders signed by the company with a value of about 9.3 billion, the gross profit margin is expected to return to a high level in 2022. We expect that the annual revenue of Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) 2022 will be about 12-13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159% – 180%.
The annual revenue of biontech (bntx. O) was US $20.3 billion, and the performance advantage of Q4 was comprehensively surpassed by Moderna (mRNA. O). On March 30, 2022, biontech announced 2021q4 performance and annual performance: 2021q4 revenue of € 5.532 billion (US $6.141 billion, Mom – 8%), and 2021 annual revenue of € 18.32 billion (US $20.34 billion); 2021q4 net profit of 10.3 billion euros (US $11.42 billion, Mom – 1%). Backed by the global resources of Pfizer, a large multinational pharmaceutical enterprise, biontech comprehensively leads Moderna in 2021q1-3; With the gradual saturation of covid-19 vaccine, the advantages of Moderna whole process self-development and global commercialization model are becoming more and more obvious.
Investment advice
The pharmaceutical sector has experienced significant adjustments, and many high-quality companies have entered a reasonable or even exceeded the valuation range. We can remain moderately optimistic in April. Over the past year, the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index and Hang Seng health care index have been at a low valuation. In April this year, we can be moderately optimistic about the upstream and manufacturing links of the pharmaceutical industry chain; The field of innovative medicine and machinery in China may still be in the transitional period of survival of the fittest.
Risk tips
Product research and development fails or the listing is less than expected; Regulatory approval and commercialization progress were less than expected.
