According to the minutes of the ECB's monetary policy meeting in March, many members believe that the current high inflation level and its persistence require immediate further measures to normalize monetary policy, and the end of the asset purchase plan in the summer can pave the way for the interest rate increase in the third quarter. At present, the market generally expects that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September, December, January and March. The recent uncertainty of overseas geopolitics has further increased the inflationary pressure in the eurozone. In March, CPI increased by 7.5% year-on-year and 2.5% month on month. We expect inflation in the eurozone to reach a new high in the coming months, and the ECB may speed up the process of currency normalization.
Asset performance and capital changes:
The top five prices of Chinese commodities: rapeseed meal 1.75%, japonica rice 0.13%, Hujin 0.12%, ferrosilicon 0.09%, corn - 0.07%; Crude oil - 6.45%, low sulfur fuel oil - 4.95%, fuel oil - 4.49%, red jujube - 4.36%, Shanghai nickel - 4.29% precipitation capital inflow and outflow top five (100 million yuan): methanol 2.82, crude oil 1.46, Shanghai Rubber 1.31, Shanghai silver 1.12, Shanghai Gold 1.03; Iron ore -2.64, hot coil -1.64, soybean meal -1.55, soybean oil-1.31, Shanghai copper -1.31 sector precipitation capital inflow and outflow (100 million yuan): non ferrous metals 671, energy and chemical industry 6.67, precious metals 2.15, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) 5.73, black building materials -6.35
Important news and economic data:
Hu Chunhua, vice premier of the State Council, presided over a symposium on the employment situation and stressed the need to strengthen the analysis, study and judgment of the employment situation, do everything possible to stabilize and expand employment, and ensure the completion of the goal and task of stabilizing employment set at the central economic work conference. At the end of March, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3187994 billion US dollars, down 25.833 billion US dollars month on month.
In the first phase of the new round of consumer voucher scheme in Hong Kong, HK $5000 consumer vouchers began to be distributed. The first phase of HK $5000 coupons is valid until October 31, and the second phase of HK $5000 coupons will be launched in the middle of the year. The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to cancel the normal trade relations between the country and Russia. In addition, it also legislated to impose an import ban on Russian oil.
According to the minutes of the ECB's monetary policy meeting in March, many members believe that the current high inflation level and its persistence require immediate and further measures to normalize monetary policy. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to April 2 was 166000, with an expected 200000, compared with the previous value of 202000.
Risk tip: the decline of China's real estate and the intensification of geographical conflicts
