Macro Daily: consumer countries announced a large-scale release of oil from emergency reserves, and oil prices fell in the short term

1. Important macro news and events:

The house of Representatives passed a bill banning the United States from importing oil, natural gas and coal from Russia and sent it to President Biden for signature. Once Biden signs, the order he issued last month will become law. Congress also passed a bill on Thursday to abolish the normal trade relations status between Russia and Belarus and allow the United States to impose high tariffs on goods from Russia and Belarus.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Ukraine submitted a new draft agreement to Russia on June 6, which fell back in many places compared with the plan previously submitted by Ukraine in Istanbul. Ukraine's new draft does not state that Ukraine's security guarantees do not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the 7th that Russia decided to terminate its membership in the United Nations Human Rights Council early from the same day. On the same day, the United Nations General Assembly held an emergency special session on Ukraine and voted to adopt a resolution on suspending Russia's membership in the United Nations Human Rights Council.

St. Louis Fed chairman Brad expressed support for the fed to raise interest rates to 3% - 3.25% in the second half of 2022. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed chairman Evans and Atlanta Fed chairman Bostick are slightly dovish. Bostik said it was entirely appropriate to adjust the policy to near neutrality, but we should be cautious. Evans said that the neutral interest rate may be reached by the end of this year or early next year, but wondered whether it needed to go further.

According to the minutes of the ECB meeting, many members believe that the current high inflation level and its persistence require immediate and further measures to normalize monetary policy. The end of the asset purchase plan in the summer could pave the way for interest rate hikes in the third quarter.

Among them, the UK will release 4.41 million barrels of crude oil reserves; Germany will release 6.48 million barrels of crude oil reserves; France will release 6.05 million barrels of crude oil reserves; Japan announced that it would release 15 million barrels of oil reserves as part of the coordinated release of the IEA.

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