The worst impact of the epidemic on China's economy in March may have passed:
This week, Guoxin high-frequency macro diffusion index a remained positive, index B increased significantly, and the overall index value returned to above the historical average again. The time when the epidemic had the most serious impact on China's economic growth may have passed.
As of April 1, 2022, Guoxin high frequency macro diffusion index a was 0.7, index B recorded 111.5 and Index C recorded - 0.6% (+ 0.3pct.). Among the seven sub items of the indicators, the operating rate of all steel tires, the operating rate of coking enterprises, the transaction area of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities, PTA output, cement price and building materials composite index increased compared with last week; Only the output of thread steel decreased compared with last week.
Weekly price high frequency tracking:
(1) food and non food prices rose this week. In March 2022, food and non food prices may be higher than the seasonality month on month. It is estimated that in March, CPI food chain ratio was about - 1.0%, CPI non food chain ratio was about 0.1%, and CPI overall chain ratio was about - 0.1%. In March this year, CPI may rise to 1.3% year-on-year.
(2) in the first, middle and last ten days of February, the price of means of production in China's circulation field continued to rise, bringing a large positive month tail in March. In the first, middle and last ten days of March, the price of means of production in the circulation field continued to rise. It is expected that the PPI in March will continue to rise to 0.9% month on month, and the PPI in March will decline to 8.0% year-on-year.
Risk tip: policy adjustment lags behind and economic growth declines.
