In March, China’s official manufacturing PMI slowed to 49.5 from 50.2 in February, below the critical point, reflecting a decline in the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry. The slowdown in manufacturing PMI in March was mainly due to the outbreak of covid-19 in many cities in China, especially in economically developed Shanghai, Shenzhen and Dongguan, as well as the rise in international commodity prices caused by the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which exacerbated the operating difficulties of middle and downstream industries, especially small and micro enterprises
Affected by the large-scale outbreak of this round of epidemic, the non manufacturing business activity index fell sharply to 48.4 in March from 51.6 in February. The business activity index of the service industry was 46.7, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of the construction industry was 58.1, up 0.5 percentage points from February, indicating that the construction process of the construction industry was accelerated in March
Overall, the official manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI data in March showed that the downward pressure on China’s economy increased significantly. The comprehensive PMI output index in March was 48.8, 2.4 percentage points lower than that in February, the lowest since the outbreak of covid-19 in February 2020. Looking ahead, we expect that with the effective control of the epidemic in some areas and the introduction of more stable growth measures by the central government, the PMI of official manufacturing and non manufacturing industries is expected to rebound significantly
