What are the recent changes in market capital supply and demand?
In January and March, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates was strengthened, the epidemic in China rebounded beyond expectations, and foreign capital outflow was significant in stages. The net outflow in a single month was 45.1 billion yuan, which turned into a net outflow for the first time since November 2020.
2. The net outflow of the fund in February was about 7.3 billion yuan, ending the net inflow trend of the previous eight consecutive months, which decreased month on month and year on year; Since March, the pace of new issuance of the fund has slightly warmed up, with a monthly scale of about 41.5 billion.
3. The scale of private placement contracted slightly and turned into a small outflow in February, with a net outflow of about 65.7 billion yuan in a single month.
4. The balance of insurance investment in stocks and funds increased significantly, with a significant increase of about 68.5 billion yuan in a single month in February, but there has been a slight net outflow since the beginning of the year.
5. The sentiment of leveraged funds was low. In March, the two financial transactions flowed out sharply again, with a net outflow of about 55.2 billion yuan. The balance of the two financial transactions also fell to 1672.8 billion yuan.
Financing supplies:
1) foreign capital (northward capital): in March, the net outflow of northward capital was 45.1 billion yuan.
2) public offering (stock type + mixed type): in February, the net outflow of mixed partial stock fund was 7.3 billion yuan.
3) insurance (stock + fund): the balance of insurance capital increased by 68.5 billion yuan in February.
4) pension security system (Social Security + pension + annuity): it is expected to contribute 25 billion yuan in the first quarter.
5) bank financial management: it is expected to contribute 50 billion yuan increment in the first quarter.
6) private placement (Private Securities Fund): the net outflow of private placement in February was 65.7 billion yuan.
7) leveraged funds (two financial transactions): the net outflow of two financial transactions in March was 55.2 billion yuan.
8) industrial capital: in March, the net reduction of industrial capital was 35.1 billion yuan.
9) Investor Account Opening: 1.42 million new investors were added in February.
Financing demand items:
In March, the scale of equity financing was about 133.1 billion yuan. The financing scale of IPO, additional issuance and convertible bonds is about 61.4 billion yuan, 19.9 billion yuan and 40.6 billion yuan respectively.
Risk tips: 1. The macro environment changes beyond expectations; 2. Overseas shocks; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
