Key investment points:
The epidemic dragged down GDP growth by about 0.63 percentage points in the first quarter
Since March this year, there have been more than 200000 new local confirmed cases + local asymptomatic infections in this round of epidemic, and the scale of infected people is significantly higher than that in previous rounds.
Considering the proportion of the economic volume in the epidemic area and the actual number of days closed, and comparing with the first round of the epidemic in 2020, calculate the impact coefficient of the current round of the epidemic on the economy. According to the relationship between the impact coefficient and the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of national GDP, it is expected that this round of epidemic will drag down the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter by about 0.63 percentage points.
The joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council emphasizes that it will not hesitate to adhere to the general policy of "dynamic clearing". It is expected that Shanghai and Jilin Province will continue to take control measures in the short term, and the current epidemic will still have a certain impact on the economy in the second quarter.
Analyze the impact of this round of epidemic from the supply side and demand side
From the supply side, the current round of epidemic has had an impact on the manufacturing and service industries, and the decline of the service industry is more obvious; In terms of supply chain, since mid March, the decline of logistics flow has significantly exceeded the seasonality.
From the demand side, affected by this round of epidemic, physical consumption, service consumption and commercial housing sales have further declined. In terms of investment, from the perspective of cement and asphalt operating rate, infrastructure construction and construction are facing certain pressure. In terms of export, the port traffic volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen accounts for a high proportion. The epidemic has a great impact on the port flow, which will form a certain inhibitory effect on the export in March and April.
It is expected that the implementation of the "steady growth" policy will be strengthened in the future according to the changes of the epidemic situation
The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 6 pointed out that the difficulties of market players have increased significantly, and the new downward pressure has further increased. In terms of fiscal policy, it is proposed to implement the phased deferred payment of endowment insurance premiums for industries in extreme poverty, and increase the support of unemployment insurance for job stabilization and training; In terms of monetary policy, it is pointed out that various monetary policy tools such as refinancing should be used flexibly in time to give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure.
It is expected that the follow-up policies will strengthen the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies according to the dynamic changes of the epidemic situation.
Risk tips
Unexpected changes in local epidemic situation, macro-economy or policies.
