Main points:
Over the past two weeks, the stock market funds ended the trend of substantial outflow and turned to net inflow. During the period from March 21 to April 1, the momentum of capital outflow slowed down, and the net inflows of northward capital, stock ETF and Liangrong were RMB 9.57, – 700 and – 7.69 billion respectively, narrowed by RMB 64.21 billion, RMB 4.03 billion and RMB 36.56 billion respectively compared with the net outflows during the period from March 7 to March 18. Especially in the last week of March, the improvement was most obvious: the cumulative net outflow from the north from March 1 to 25 was 65.6 billion yuan, a new high since 2015. However, in the single week from March 28 to April 1, the net inflow was 23.043 billion yuan; The equity ETF also had a net inflow of 9.11 billion yuan in the week, which had been a net outflow for three weeks.
Differences still exist in capital allocation and trading in the north. From March 21 to March 25, the net inflow of configuration disk turned negative to positive, with a net inflow of RMB 12.17 billion; During the period from March 28 to April 1, it turned into a net outflow of 8.89 billion yuan. On the contrary, in the trading market, there was a significant net outflow of 25.64 billion yuan from March 21 to March 25 and a net inflow of 31.93 billion yuan from March 28 to April 1. In terms of industry, in the past two weeks, the allocation disk has significantly flowed into Dianxin, banking and medicine; Trading orders have flowed into electronics, trading and nonferrous metals. According to the previous research, “the net outflow exceeds 5 billion yuan, and the reverse success rate of the market is predicted to reach 70% in one month”. Industries with a net outflow of more than 5 billion yuan from the north in March include food and beverage, computer, medicine, non bank and chemical industry.
ETF funds are converted into net inflows. During the period from March 7 to March 25, ETF continued to show a net outflow trend, and the cumulative net outflow reached 20.41 billion yuan. However, during the period from March 28 to April 1, ETF funds turned into net inflow, a significant increase of 15.34 billion yuan compared with the previous week. In terms of structure, ETF funds prefer high-end manufacturing and TMT industries during March 21-April 1.
The waves of two financing funds are rising again. The risk appetite of leveraged funds has not been completely repaired. After narrowing rapidly from 3 / 21 to 3 / 25, it turned into net outflow again during 3 / 28-4 / 1. During the period from March 21 to April 1, the net outflow of the two financing funds was 7.69 billion yuan. In terms of structure, a substantial net inflow into the pharmaceutical, real estate and machinery industries; Significant net purchases of individual stocks Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) .
The spring water is in its infancy, the spring forest is in its infancy, the warmth of A-Shares has appeared, and Beishui has taken the lead. The twists and turns of domestic capital and leveraged funds are due to the “capital recovery is redemption” effect of some funds. Our previous research found that since 2017, there have been four sharp market declines (a decline of more than 10% from the high point to the low point of ETF net value). In the process of recovery after the sharp decline, the fund will have continuous redemption. After reaching the bottom, when the net value of ETF units recovers by about 5%, continuous redemption will often begin to occur, and the redemption opening time is about 2-4 weeks after the net value of the fund reaches the bottom. At present, the net value of ETF rebounded from the 15th to the 25th, and the net value rebounded by 4.7%. During this period, the net outflow expanded or caused by this effect. This trend may stop gradually when the net value of the fund returns to the level at the beginning of March.
Investment strategy: macroeconomic fluctuations exceeded expectations, epidemic development exceeded expectations, and policy changes exceeded expectations.
