Since March 2022, northward capital outflow has reached a record high, but the trend reversed last week. Since 2022, the fluctuation of northward funds has intensified, with an overall net outflow of 45.083 billion in March. In particular, the accumulated outflow in the first three weeks of March was 68.114 billion yuan, even exceeding the two peak periods in history: the global liquidity crisis stage in March 2020 (outflow of 67.873 billion yuan) and may 2019 (outflow of 53.673 billion yuan). Last week, the market stabilized, and the northward capital also shifted from outflow to inflow for the first time, with an inflow of 23.043 billion. Structurally, it is mainly trading, with an inflow of 31.935 billion in trading and an outflow of 8.892 billion in allocation.
Northward overall: most industries have the largest net inflow (power equipment and new energy), while real estate ranks first in the net outflow. Last week, there were 24 industries in the northward capital inflow, of which Dianxin (4.527 billion), food and beverage (3.452 billion) and non-ferrous metals (2.837 billion) had the largest inflow; Real estate outflow was the largest (- 652 million).
There are still differences between the configuration disk and the trading disk: the configuration disk is sold and the trading disk is bought. Last week, there were 10 industries in the allocation of funds, with the largest inflow of Medicine (2.808 billion); Out of 20 industries, transportation (- 3.747 billion) has the largest outflow. Among the trading funds, there are 25 industries, with the largest inflow of Electronics (5.586 billion); The outflow from five industries was the largest (- 3.405 billion).
Stock flow: last week, the largest inflow stock was Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and the largest outflow stock was Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) . Last week, the top three stocks of northward capital inflow were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (RMB 1.651 billion), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (RMB 1.589 billion) and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (RMB 970 million). Last week, the top three stocks of northward capital outflow were Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) (- 697 million yuan), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (- 390 million yuan), China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) (- 359 million yuan).
Cumulative statistics: in the past month, the inflow of two industries exceeded 6 billion (Dianxin and nonferrous metals), and the outflow of five industries exceeded 5 billion; In the past quarter, the cumulative inflow of two industries exceeded 10 billion and the cumulative outflow of nine industries exceeded 2.5 billion. For the two industries with a net inflow of 10 billion yuan, nonferrous metals has always maintained a positive inflow in Q1. Banks mainly inflow in the working quarter and start a net outflow after mid February.
North tracking strategy: in the special report “exploring the source of excess return of North funds”, we constructed the top 50 industry tracking strategy based on North fund positions. Since the establishment, the return rate has been 33.04%, 17.87% relative to the overall excess return of North, and 24.24% relative to the excess return of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. As of April 1, according to the position data, coal, chemical industry and building materials have triggered the increase of the threshold, medicine and food and beverage have triggered the decrease of the threshold, and adjust the industry allocation proportion of the North fund position following strategy. See the chart at the end of the article for details.
Risk warning: Based on historical data calculation, there may be data statistical error, and there may be failure risk under the change of policy and market environment.
