Key investment points
Steel: the epidemic has an impact on the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial chain. It is more difficult for steel enterprises to obtain raw materials, the transportation of finished products is limited, the downstream is stagnant due to epidemic control or shortage of raw materials, and the commodity price tends to rise in the environment of poor logistics, which is similar to the rise of vegetable price in the environment of epidemic control. In addition, due to the expectation of logistics uncertainty, the industrial chain has the tendency to increase the preparation of raw materials. In addition, the market outside Shanghai is relatively strong, and the downstream rush after the epidemic is expected, the short-term black price is still relatively strong, and the inflection point of black price may appear after the rush after the epidemic. In the medium term, the short cycle adjustment of real estate since the second quarter of last year remains to be completed.
Coal: with the advent of the traditional off-season, the price of thermal coal fell this week. However, considering the inventory, transportation capacity, demand level and overseas prices, it is expected that the space for price correction is limited, and the short-term price fluctuation has little impact on the value of coal enterprises. Coking coal ushered in the peak season, the demand for replenishment of storage in downstream coking plants was gradually released, the willingness to purchase was strengthened, and the rising momentum was obvious. Overall, the Q1 performance of coal enterprises is expected to be very bright. The price of Q2 power coal long-term association is difficult to retreat, the price of coking coal long-term association is still rising, and the Q2 performance is expected to continue to be high. Recently, coal enterprises have successively released their annual reports for 2021. The trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure. It will be a major feature of the industry to continuously return high returns to investors. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022. In terms of individual stock recommendation, companies with a high proportion of long-term association have more stable performance growth, companies with a high proportion of coal in the market have more attractive valuation, and companies with large advantages of coal types or logic of output growth have strong competitiveness α In addition, the valuation of coal stocks will be positively improved. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to focus on: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , power investment energy. Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Nonferrous Metals: the cost and external demand support continued, and the price of base metals continued to be high. 1) Precious metals, risk aversion eased, non-agricultural data were strong, and gold prices were under pressure. During the week, there was a positive signal from the Russian Ukrainian negotiations, and the market’s preference for risky assets rebounded. However, the US announced strong non farm employment data in March, which pushed the yield of the US dollar and the US ten-year Treasury bond stronger. At the same time, inflation was high, and the market expected to increase the interest rate actively by the US Federal Reserve, which put some pressure on the price of gold. As of April 1, Comex gold closed at US $1942.7/oz, down 0.59% month on month; COMEX silver closed at US $24.654/oz, down 3.75% month on month; SHFE gold closed at 396.26 yuan / g, down 1.35% month on month; SHFE silver closed at 55038 yuan / kg, down 3.80% month on month. 2) Base metals, the European energy crisis supports metal prices, and the epidemic has impacted China’s downstream demand. During the week, the Russian law on energy settlement in rubles continued to have a considerable impact on the market, and the energy issue remains the key to supporting prices; However, copper and aluminum prices fell, mainly due to market concerns about the weakening of downstream consumption caused by China’s epidemic. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by – 0.1%, – 5.1%, 3.4%, 6.2%, 4.0% and – 6.3% respectively this week, and prices rose or fell.
Building materials: at the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of building materials & new materials investment. First, the prosperity and performance fulfillment are selected from carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries; Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials; Third, gypsum board and cement are preferred for undervalued defense: the common feature is good cash flow and competition pattern; Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, there is basically no downside risk in the industry under the support of cost, and there is an inflection point in float glass inventory, waiting for the price to stabilize and recover under the boost of demand. 1) In the field of new materials, the “limited overseas supply”, the explosion of demand in new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen downstream of carbon fiber, and China’s leading “grinding a sword in ten years”; Domestic leaders have finished catching up. In the future, capacity expansion and cost reduction will lead to surpassing in the civil field; Zhongfu Shenying, the leader of carbon fiber, is expected to be listed and traded on April 6. It is suggested to focus on it and other targets of the carbon fiber industry chain, such as Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) etc. High purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. 2) Brand building materials layout at the right time, waiting for the rose of time. Since the second half of the year, the valuation and performance of brand building materials have been killed under weak demand + capital pressure + high cost. Recently, the “implementation of policies due to the city” is gradually making efforts, such as the sharp rise in the first auction heat in Hefei and the reduction of mortgage interest rates in many places. In the absence of significant improvement in real estate fundamentals, the policy continued to relax expectations, the credit risk faced by the real estate chain and the pessimistic expectation of market demand were repaired, and the sector rebounded as a whole. According to the historical resumption, the end of the general real estate policy corresponds to the end of the valuation of brand building materials. The end of this round of policy / valuation appears in 21q4. We expect the end of fundamentals to appear in 22q1. On the cost side, the reserves of raw materials with leading low price can generally cover 22q1, and the recent easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine or the reduction of oil price can focus on the subdivision track with high correlation between cost and oil price. 3) The cost performance of cement allocation is high. The infrastructure development force and the marginal recovery of real estate under steady growth are expected to support the cement demand to maintain a high platform. However, the further coordination and optimization of cement core logic at the supply side in 22 years has generally strengthened the scope and intensity of peak staggering this year than last year, superimposing the high price center to maintain profitability and toughness. 4) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 5) The glass fiber cycle is weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile and other strong support for demand), the price of electronic cloth has fallen to the bottom range, and the current safety margin is high. 6) There is still price elasticity at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass cycle. We are optimistic about the adverse expansion and cost competitiveness of leading enterprises, and focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the photovoltaic glass field; The price of float glass fell slightly, and the factory inventory began to show an inflection point this week. Later, with the gradual recovery of demand, the price is expected to stabilize and recover.
Chemical industry: the price of crude oil has reached a new high, the global capital expenditure has warmed up, and the leader of the oil service industry has fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; The rise in oil prices has led to the increase and expansion of chemical products prices, among which private large-scale refining has fully benefited: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , while the relevant industrial chain represented by PTA polyester filament is expected to be driven by both cost and demand: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. As the main body of the chemical industry, the PPI of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in February 2022 increased by 19.70% year-on-year, which was positive for 14 consecutive months. In terms of downstream demand, from January to December 2021, the newly started area of houses decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, 0.04% month on month in December, the construction area increased by 5.2% year-on-year from January to December, 6.32% month on month in December, the completed area increased by 11.2% year-on-year from January to December, and 184.9% month on month in December; From January to December, the national automobile output increased by 4.8% year-on-year; From January to December, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 14.2% year-on-year, with strong demand. On the supply side, the investment in fixed assets in the chemical industry continued to grow. From January to December, the investment in fixed assets in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 15.7% year-on-year. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives in the business cycle Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) . New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is suggested to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning event: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase. The economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact. Macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection and other policy fluctuation risks, gold price fluctuation risks, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected risks, and the premise assumptions of industry supply and demand calculation are lower than expected risks. Risks of macroeconomic downturn; The epidemic has led to lower than expected demand; Risk of relaxation of production restriction and new production capacity; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises. Macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
