Key investment points:
The volatility of global financial markets declined, and the main A-share indexes rose more or fell less: from March 28 to April 1, the main A-share indexes rose more or fell less, of which the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19% to close at 328272 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29%, the gem index rose 1.10%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.43%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 1.60%. This week, Shenwan level industries rose more or fell less, among which real estate, building materials and banks led the rise, while electronics, national defense and military industry and non-ferrous metals fell significantly.
The trading heat has warmed up, and the Chinese epidemic has disturbed market sentiment: the average daily trading volume of the two cities during the week was 927832 billion yuan, a decrease of about 2.61% compared with last week. Market sentiment improved this week, and the turnover rate of the main broad stock index fluctuated upward. By industry, affected by the large-scale spread of covid-19 epidemic, the pharmaceutical and biological sector was active this week, with a turnover of 695946 billion yuan that week, ranking first for three consecutive weeks. Power equipment and basic chemical industry ranked second and third, with a turnover of 342886 billion yuan and 327427 billion yuan respectively.
Investment advice: Russia Ukraine negotiations have made significant progress, and the volatility of the global financial market is falling from a high level. If the conflict situation does not deteriorate, it is expected to usher in confidence restoration and attract funds to the equity market. Russia stated that from April 1, the export of natural gas to unfriendly countries will be settled in rubles, and the price of upstream resource products will continue to rise. It is concerned about the periodic upward risk of PPI and the cost impact on the production of middle and lower reaches. The epidemic situation is on the rise in many places in China, the number of confirmed cases in some areas is on the rise, the prevention and control efforts are strengthened, the passenger flow during the Qingming holiday is down year-on-year, the performance of railway passenger flow, scenic spot passenger flow and cinema box office are relatively dim, and the consumption intention is blocked. In March, the official PMI and Caixin PMI were lower than the boom and bust line, and the operation pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises increased. Among them, the sub item data related to export fell, or it indicates that the export fell in March. At the end of the quarter, the interest rate of the central bank dropped gradually. Recently, equity fund positions have declined, and the proportion of bank financial management breaking net has increased. The market pullback made equity funds passively reduce their positions, and the popular track continued to callback. Return to the fundamental allocation of funds and pursue certainty. It is expected that the net outflow of funds will gradually improve. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the logic of price rise in upstream industries continues to ferment, and funds are sought after in coal, metal and other industries; 2) Recently, there has been marginal relaxation at both ends of real estate supply and demand, market expectations have improved, and attention has been paid to the leading real estate enterprises focusing on the main business.
Risk factors: increased geopolitical risks; The epidemic situation worsened; The economy fell more than expected.
