Key investment points
Since April 1, Fujian has relaxed the provident fund policy, and can withdraw the housing provident fund to pay the down payment for the purchase of new commercial housing, which has an obvious intention to stimulate the sales of commercial housing in the province;
Commercial housing sales is the core link of the real estate market. On the one hand, it will stimulate relevant consumption downward, on the other hand, it will affect the land acquisition enthusiasm of real estate enterprises upward, and then affect the income of local governments;
From the performance of relevant indicators of commercial housing market and land market in the core cities of the province, as well as the dependence of local finance on land transfer income, there is indeed a need to stimulate commercial housing sales in Fujian.
Expand the scope of the research model to the core cities of 31 provinces and cities in China (excluding Lhasa), excluding 33 After Fuzhou and Xiamen. Observe whether there are common characteristics with the core cities in Fujian Province, especially the impulse to relax the policy of commercial housing sales end;
The results show that 12 cities deserve attention. Among them, 10 cities, including Hefei, Guiyang, Chengdu, Taiyuan, Nanning, Shanghai, Lanzhou (policy adjustment has occurred on April 5), Nanchang, Qingdao and Yinchuan, have new demand for population inflow, while the enthusiasm for land acquisition in the short term is weakened, and the supply and demand cannot match. Mainly due to policy restrictions, there may be an impulse to relax the sales side policy. In addition, Shijiazhuang and Kunming also deserve attention. There is also new demand for population inflow. The short-term land market is OK, but the dependence on land income is high. From the perspective of stable expectation, there is also the possibility of adjusting policies.
Risk prompt event: 1. Risk of policy change. 2. The screening of relevant cities is based on certain calculations and the inductive analysis of public historical data. The relevant conclusions have certain limitations and are only for reference.
