Strategy tracking: the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in May is heating up, and the gem fell by more than 1%

Index tracking

[Shanghai and Shenzhen composite index] Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02% to close at 328343 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.45% to close at 1217291 points; The gem index fell 1.24% to close at 263391.

[industry tracking] industry: 21 industries rose and 9 industries fell. Among them, steel, building decoration and real estate led the increase, with increases of 4.10%, 3.39% and 2.76% respectively; Power equipment, electronics, national defense industry and other sectors led the decline, with a decline of – 2.51%, – 2.05%, – 1.44%.

Comments

The steel sector rose significantly. At the supply level, in March, Tangshan released new measures to limit production and reduce emissions for iron and steel enterprises, with a maximum production reduction ratio of 50%, and the overall steel output is limited; At the same time, it is expected that the demand for steel will continue to rise in the spring, and the overall demand for steel will continue to rise. At the same time, it is expected that the demand for steel will continue to rise in the short term. At the same time, it is expected that the overall demand for steel will continue to rise in the future. In terms of individual stocks, Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Anyang Iron & Steel Inc(600569) and other individual stocks rose by the limit.

The building decoration sector strengthened. The development of infrastructure is an important supporting condition for China’s current economic growth and can improve the potential growth rate of the economy. This year, it is planned to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, superimposing the 1.2 trillion yuan of special bonds issued in the fourth quarter of 2021, which can be used for specific projects, providing strong support for expanding effective investment. Under the background of “steady growth”, the new and old infrastructure is expected to continue to develop, and the demand for architectural decoration is expected to increase. In terms of individual stocks, Zhengping Road & Bridge Construction Co.Ltd(603843) , Xinjiang Beixin Road & Bridge Group Co.Ltd(002307) , Shenzhen Strongteam Decoration Engineering Co.Ltd(002989) and other individual stocks rose by the limit.

The concept of traditional Chinese medicine was among the top gainers. Recently, the report of the “expert evaluation meeting of the World Health Organization on the treatment of covid-19 pneumonia with traditional Chinese medicine” was recently released on the official website of the World Health Organization. The meeting report pointed out that traditional Chinese medicine can effectively treat covid-19 pneumonia, reduce the conversion of mild and ordinary cases to severe cases, shorten the virus clearance time, and improve the clinical prognosis of mild and ordinary patients. Under the catalysis of the news, the traditional Chinese medicine sector strengthened. In terms of individual stocks, Dali Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603963) , Shanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Limited By Share Ltd(002864) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) and other stocks rose by the limit.

Outlook

Today, the Shanghai stock index opened lower and turned red. The gem index fell by more than 1%, and the net outflow of funds from the North exceeded 5 billion yuan. The gem index fell significantly due to the renewed warming of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates. The US March ism non manufacturing PMI released on Tuesday recorded 58. In March, the final PMI value of Markit service industry in the United States recorded 58. At the same time, labor market data showed that indicators such as unemployment rate and labor participation rate were also gradually improving. Therefore, the improvement of employment data and new order data provided space for the Federal Reserve to further tighten. The expectation of raising interest rate by 50bp in May warmed up again, and the US stocks fell greatly, while the gem also fell greatly affected by this. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to pay attention to agriculture, high-end manufacturing, energy industry chain, etc.

Risk warning: the profit of the enterprise is less than expected; Increased volatility in overseas markets; Systemic risk

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