Macro weekly report

Summary of this week and configuration suggestions for next week

Inflation in the United States and Europe soared sharply in February, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points increased. The US non farm payrolls increased by 431000 after the quarterly adjustment in March, which was released this week, slightly lower than the expected increase of 490000; The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in March from 3.8% last month, a new low since February 2020. The average annual rate of hourly wage in March recorded 5.56%, which continued to increase significantly. This report is the last non farm employment report before the Fed's interest rate meeting in early May. The relatively strong employment data consolidated the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates by 50 basis points. On the other hand, the core PCE price index of the United States in February increased by 5.4% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from January, reaching a new high in 40 years. Rising inflation also curbed consumer demand, and the month on month growth rate of us personal expenditure fell to 0.2% from 2.7% in February. Affected by inflation and employment data, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates by 50 basis points increased. The US dollar index rose 0.21% to 98.57 on Friday, but fell 0.24% this week, as the news of positive progress in Russia Ukraine negotiations boosted the euro and hit the demand for us dollar hedging. Most non-U.S. currencies fell, and the euro fell 0.23% to 1.1041 against the US dollar on Friday, rising 0.6% on a weekly basis, benefiting from the news that Russia Ukraine negotiations have made progress. The year-on-year increase of CPI in the eurozone in February soared to 7.5%, higher than the expected 6.6% and the previous value of 5.9%, once again reaching a record high. The month on month growth was 2.5%, higher than the expected 1.9% and the previous value of 0.9%. This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that since April 1, natural gas buyers from non friendly countries must use rubles for settlement, but they were opposed by G7 countries, and the concerns about the shortage of natural gas supply in Europe intensified or pushed European inflation higher. In terms of commodities, the international crude oil price fell sharply this week. Due to the progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations and the announcement of the release of fuel reserves by the United States, the US oil contract in May fell 12.71% to US $99.42/barrel. Rising expectations of a substantial interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve put pressure on international gold prices. Comex gold futures fell 1.32% this week, but rising global inflationary pressure still supported gold prices.

Recently, the epidemic has struck again, and many places such as Jilin, Shanghai and Fujian have been hit again. Some enterprises in some areas have temporarily reduced production and stopped production, which has affected the normal production and operation of relevant upstream and downstream enterprises; At the same time, international geopolitical conflicts have intensified recently, export orders of some enterprises have been reduced or cancelled, and manufacturing production activities and market demand have weakened. Meanwhile, the contact and aggregation industries are greatly affected by the epidemic, and the consumer service industry is expected to remain depressed in the short term. With the warming climate, the construction progress of the construction industry may continue to accelerate. According to the market expectation index, it is still in the high boom range, and the said bank enterprises are still optimistic and confident about the development prospect of the industry.

This week, the Central Bank of China invested a net 50 billion yuan in the open market. In terms of macro policy, the regular policy meeting of the central bank in the first quarter pointed out that the current foreign epidemic continues, geopolitical conflicts escalate, the external environment becomes more complex, severe and uncertain, the frequency of epidemic in China has increased, and economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. We should make progress while maintaining stability, strengthen cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation, strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy, enhance foresight, accuracy and autonomy, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, respond actively, boost confidence, provide stronger support for the real economy and stabilize the macro-economic market. In the capital market, the main market indexes closed up on the weekly line this week, the Shanghai index rebounded by more than 2%, the gem index and the Shenzhen composite index also showed an obvious rebound trend, and the Kechuang 50 was weak and downward. In the three-phase index, the trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was strong, and rebounded near the annual line on the weekly line.

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