Core view
The important influencing factors of the market in the near future are still four internal and external aspects: China's steady growth and epidemic situation, foreign geopolitics and the rise of US debt. From last week's situation, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain abroad, but the situation related to China concept shares has eased greatly, and China concept shares and Hang Seng technology have rebounded significantly; US debt was corrected after hitting a new high in recent years. In China, the steady growth policy continues, but the pace is still slow, the epidemic continues to remain high, and it still takes time for the situation to ease. In this context, the overall market is tangled and volatile, and the bond market yield is slightly downward.
In China, the epidemic situation and steady growth are the main line at present. On the one hand, the epidemic interrupted the process of economic recovery. At the current time point, the number of newly confirmed cases and the number of provinces involved remain high, and the overall situation of the epidemic has not improved significantly. Considering the continuity of epidemic prevention strategy and the economic operation in March, the economic recovery may bear greater pressure; On the other hand, after the effect of stabilizing growth in the previous stage was less than expected, the national Standing Committee once again stressed that "stabilizing growth should be placed in a more prominent position". At the same time, it required that "policies to stabilize the economy should be carried out early and quickly, no measures detrimental to stabilizing market expectations should be taken, and plans should be formulated to deal with greater uncertainty". The space of real estate "implementing policies according to the city" is expected to be further opened.
Overseas, the rise of US bond interest rates and geopolitical risks have increased the uncertainty of peripheral markets. High inflation and sustained employment recovery in the United States have accelerated the turn of the Fed's monetary policy to Eagle, resulting in the rapid rise of the two-year interest rate, and the upside down between the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds and that of 2-year treasury bonds. However, the trend of 10-year and 2-year term interest spread and 10-year and 3-month term interest spread of US bonds has differentiated, which may indicate that the rise of 2-year interest rate of US bonds at this stage is mainly caused by the shift of monetary policy. Whether it indicates that the economy has hidden danger of recession remains to be further observed; Geopolitics is another important aspect of market concern. The uncertainty of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not clear, the political and economic confrontation has not weakened, and commodity prices continue to be disturbed.
In the short term, China's epidemic and steady growth process, foreign geopolitics and its derivative influence and the rise of US debt are still the main influencing factors of the market. The pace and intensity of the epidemic in China are still uncertain, but there is still uncertainty; Geopolitics has improved, but there are still risks. It is difficult to determine the upward rhythm of US debt. These factors still have certain variables in the short term. The sentiment of the market was weak after repeated declines. In this context, it is more important to wait and see and respond.
Risk tips: the change of the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, and the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations
