Research conclusion
Recently, local prevention and control measures have strong characteristics of "adjusting measures to local conditions", which are closely related to the degree of epidemic spread, urban scale, epidemic prevention decision-making and other factors. It is difficult to use the same model to calculate the impact of the epidemic on local economy. Taking Jilin as an example, at the provincial level, the flow of personnel across provinces, cities and prefectures in the province (especially Changchun and Jilin) will be prohibited from March 14; At the level of key prefecture level cities, all unnecessary flows have been stopped in Changchun since March 11. It can be seen that cities with higher risk have greater prevention and control efforts than surrounding cities mainly affected by spillover. The cases of Shanghai and Shenzhen also show that even if they are first tier cities that are more cautious about sealing and control (reflected in the relatively short time of full sealing and control), their modes are not the same, and the impact is not the same. In this context, how to measure the impact of the epidemic on the macro-economy has become a challenge. We believe that we might as well start from the cases of Yangzhou and Xi'an to explore how much loss the epidemic has brought to consumption, investment and production, so as to study how the cities with the epidemic will be affected.
Yangzhou provides a good case study, and the impact of closure can be basically reflected in the data in August 2021. Since August 3, Yangzhou has implemented closed management for all residential areas in the main urban area except closed residential areas; This move continued until August 29, when Yangzhou issued an announcement to adjust the management measures of sealed off communities in the main urban area in stages and batches. From the calculation results, the epidemic prevention and control has almost led to the loss of consumption in a whole month, which is highly consistent with the length of time of closure and control in the whole city, and even there is a certain loss in the fourth quarter (but the influence of new power and production restriction factors in the fourth quarter cannot be ruled out); For investment, the impact range is the smallest, causing a loss of only 1.8 days, which will turn to growth in September; The impact of industrial added value is between consumption and investment.
The epidemic prevention and control in Xi'an will be upgraded by the end of December (the strictest control will start on December 27). The epidemic prevention and control will continue to upgrade - entertainment venues will be closed on December 18, schools will be closed on December 20, enterprises and institutions will be encouraged to work at home and suspend food in the classroom on December 23, and the community will implement closed management. One person in each family will go out to purchase domestic materials every two days, and other family members need to hold certificates issued by the unit and community. Suspend holding large-scale meetings, performances, etc; The park tour, square dance and other mass activities were suspended. Xi'an began to implement the strictest social control on the 27th, and insisted on not leaving the house except for nucleic acid sampling. Using a method similar to Yangzhou, we can calculate that the epidemic and its prevention and control led to 19 days of consumption loss in Xi'an in the fourth quarter, 9.3 days of investment loss in December and 3 days of industrial production loss. However, it should be pointed out that power and production restrictions at the end of 2021 have imposed certain restrictions on all dimensions of the macro economy, and consumption, investment and production are also under pressure at the national level. Our calculation method will lead to the attribution of all negative factors to the epidemic, so there is an overestimation of the loss of the epidemic.
Shenzhen and Shanghai have attracted much attention due to their large economic volume and high proportion of service industry: (1) the common feature of the two cities is that they are more cautious about the most stringent sealing and control measures, so they adopt the mode of "layer by layer overweight", and the actual number of days affected is more than the number of days of "staying at home". Therefore, we assume that Shenzhen will lose 10 days of consumption and 1 day of investment; Suppose that Shanghai lost 15 days in total, including 7.5 days in March and April, 1.5 days in investment, and 0.75 days in March and April; (2) By calculating the proportion of Shanghai and Shenzhen in national consumption and investment respectively, we can calculate their drag on national economic growth. We found that on the basis of a series of assumptions, the prevention and control measures in Shanghai and Shenzhen will drag down the national consumption growth rate by 1.7 percentage points in March and 1.36 percentage points in April. Further, for the annual consumption growth, the two cities will drag down the social zero growth rate by 0.3 percentage points; (3) The impact on investment is relatively limited.
Risk tips
The duration and coverage of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
Changes in assumptions affect the calculation results: the calculation in this paper is based on the set assumptions, and there is a risk of deviation of the results due to changes in assumptions.
