This week's view: since March, the local epidemic in China has continued to spread, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the PMI of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries have decreased, especially the service industry has been greatly impacted. In the special meeting chaired by Liu He, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council clearly put forward the requirements of actively introducing policies beneficial to the market and carefully introducing contractive policies. At the regular meeting of the State Council on March 29, the State Council once again stressed that the policies for stabilizing the economy should come out early and quickly, and there should be no measures detrimental to stabilizing market expectations. According to the current situation, there are two main factors affecting China's economic growth: the epidemic and real estate. As real estate is the pillar industry of China's national economy, it is urgent to stabilize real estate in order to achieve stable economic growth. As the market sentiment is still low and the impact of the epidemic on the economy is superimposed, we believe that the steady growth policy will continue to increase, the ministries and commissions will probably further introduce supporting policies, the real estate transaction is expected to gradually return to normality, and it is expected that the real estate will usher in good news. It is suggested to pay attention to the real estate, building materials and infrastructure sectors. In terms of the epidemic situation, the new covid-19 cases in the world have declined, but the local epidemic situation in China has further spread. We believe that the current epidemic situation in China is in the most severe stage. We can pay attention to the relevant sectors of fresh food, e-commerce and cloud office in the short term, but the epidemic rate can be controlled within the year, and we can pay attention to the industries damaged by the epidemic in the long term. Overseas, Fed officials intensively released hawkish signals to raise interest rate hike expectations. As the situation in Ukraine continues to ferment, we believe that the conflict in Ukraine is likely to trigger a new round of arms race, and China's military spending is expanding, so we can pay attention to the military industry sector.
Hot spots in China: in January and March, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. The business activity index of non manufacturing industry was 48.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity of non manufacturing industry fell to the contraction range. 2、 The people's Bank of China released a questionnaire survey report in the first quarter, and the overall economic prosperity level decreased. 3、 On March 28, the notice of the State Council on the establishment of special additional deduction of individual income tax for the care of infants and young children under the age of 3 was issued.
International hot spots: first, in the face of unprecedented Western sanctions against Russia, after natural gas, Russia said it might expand the scope of the ruble settlement list. 2、 US President Biden announced on March 31 that he would release 1 million barrels of oil a day and 180 million barrels a day from the US strategic oil reserves in the next six months to deal with the current situation of short supply and high oil prices.
This week's high-frequency data tracking: last week, the Shanghai stock index rose 2.19% to close at 328272 points, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43% to close at 427616 points, and the gem index rose 1.09% to close at 266697 points.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation in China has deteriorated beyond expectations; The geopolitical situation continued to stir the market.
