Key points
Event:
The United States added 431000 non-agricultural jobs after the quarterly adjustment in March, with the previous value of 750000 and the market expectation of 490000; The unemployment rate was 3.6%, the previous value was 3.8%, and the market expected 3.7%.
Hourly salary increased by 0.4% month on month, the previous value was 0.03%, and the market expected 0.4%; The year-on-year increase was 5.6%, the previous value was 5.1%, and the market expectation was 5.5%. The labor participation rate was 62.4%, and the former value was 62.3%. The employed population rate was 60.1%, the former value was 59.9%. As of the closing on April 1, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose 6BP to 2.38%; The S & P 500 index rose 0.34% and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.4%; The NASDAQ rose 0.29%.
Core view:
The employment data of the United States in March basically met expectations. Leisure and hotel industry, professional and commercial services and retail industry were the main contributions of the new non-agricultural sectors. Under the background of the weakening epidemic, the rise of labor supply and the transformation of residents' demand are conducive to the repair of employment in the service industry. Looking ahead, the employment market will maintain a steady recovery, but due to the slow repair of the gap between labor supply and demand, the salary growth rate will remain high, putting upward pressure on inflation. Overall, the pace of job market recovery is in line with expectations, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year is imperative.
Comments:
The service sector remains the main driver of a strong recovery in the labour market
In March, 431000 new non-agricultural workers were added in the United States, slightly lower than the 490000 people expected by the market. However, on the whole, the number of new non-agricultural workers has reached 562000 since 2022.
The main contributions are leisure and hotel industry, professional and business services and retail industry. In addition, the US Department of labor added a total of 95000 non-agricultural workers in January and February. Looking ahead, under the background of the weakening of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of residents' lives to the pre epidemic level, it is expected that the employment market will maintain a strong recovery trend.
The number of people employed in the leisure industry continued to rise, with an increase of 45000 in the previous month. In terms of splitting, catering services increased by 61000 (the former value was 94000) and accommodation increased by 25000 (the former value was 26000).
Since March, the global spread of Omicron has slowed significantly. The number of confirmed cases in the United States fell to about 30000 from the peak of 820000 in January, and the number of new daily deaths also fell from about 2700 to 670. European and American countries have successively liberalized epidemic prevention and entry control, supporting service and entertainment consumption. Looking ahead, we believe that Omicron's obstacles to global opening may gradually dissipate in the second quarter of 2022, supporting the accelerated closure of the employment gap in the service industry.
In March, 102000 new jobs were created in professional and commercial services (the previous value increased by 105000), including 22000 new jobs in services to buildings and dwellings, 18000 new jobs in accounting services and 15000 new jobs in management and technical consulting services. The overall employment of professional and commercial services is 723000 higher than that in February 2020, which shows that under the background of the regression of the epidemic, employees return to the office and residents return to the city, increasing the demand for various professional services. In addition, household survey data show that 10% of the employed population chose remote work in March, down 3 percentage points from 13% in February.
