Under the disturbance of the epidemic, China's economic data in March is expected to fall significantly, and the policy of steady growth will be further strengthened. Overseas inflationary pressure continued to increase. Before the third quarter, the Fed continued the hawkish pace of raising interest rates.
China's manufacturing data fell in March, and the questionnaire survey of the central bank in the first quarter also gave not optimistic results. The high-frequency data is still weak. It is expected that the economic data in March will fall in an all-round way, with a GDP growth of 4.6% in the first quarter. At the same time, we need to pay attention to whether the supply chain problems implied by the slowdown of supplier delivery time will increase inflationary pressure in the second half of the year.
It is difficult to change the epidemic prevention and control policy in the short term. In order to hedge the disturbance of the epidemic to economic growth, the policy of "steady growth" should be further strengthened.
Overseas inflationary pressure continued to increase. Considering that the US economic growth is still strong and the mid-term election, the Fed is expected to continue the hawkish pace of raising interest rates before the third quarter. The tightening of the European Central Bank's administrative policy still lags behind the Federal Reserve, and there is still room for the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields. Recently, US bond yields have been upside down, and we still need to pay attention to the risk of global stagflation.
Risk tip: the rebound of the epidemic exceeded expectations, China's policy easing was less than expected, and the Fed raised interest rates more than expected
