Key points:
Event: in mid March, the PMI index of mining and manufacturing industry recorded 49.5, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; Non manufacturing PMI recorded 48.4, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month; In March, the comprehensive PMI index recorded 48.8, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Affected by the epidemic, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry decreased
Affected by the Omicron variant virus, the manufacturing PMI data in March recorded the lowest value in the past decade. The average value of manufacturing PMI in March of the past 10 years was 51.2, and there was no situation lower than the boom and bust line. The wide spread of Omicron variant virus in some cities has upgraded epidemic prevention measures and impacted the production and operation of enterprises and the consumption activities of residents to a certain extent. The ex factory price index recorded 56.7, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous value. Mainly affected by the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of major commodities have increased significantly, and the duration of inflationary pressure on industrial products may be prolonged. Production and operation activities are expected to record 55.7, down 3 percentage points from the previous value, which is only higher than that in 2020 and the same period in 2015 in the past 10 years.
Medium sized enterprises fell and small enterprises rebounded
Under the impact of the Omicron epidemic in March, small enterprises rose instead of falling, mainly because the data in February was too low, resulting in an increase in the month on month. However, the continuous upgrading of epidemic prevention measures caused by the epidemic did not reduce the operating pressure on small enterprises. The PMI index of large enterprises recorded 51.3 this month, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value, and the PMI index of medium-sized enterprises recorded 48.5, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous value. On the one hand, the PMI index of medium-sized enterprises showed strong anti seasonal factors in February, resulting in a month on month decline in March; On the other hand, medium-sized enterprises are more impacted than large enterprises.
Under the goal of steady growth, the counter cyclical policy is expected to be further implemented
Under the impact of the epidemic, the PMI index of the construction industry continued to rise, mainly reflecting two points: first, the marginal policy of the real estate industry was relaxed, and the prosperity of the construction industry rebounded due to the regulatory adjustment of urban policies; 2、 The counter cyclical steady growth policy has been gradually implemented, and infrastructure investment has made great efforts. Under the influence of the epidemic, PMI in the service industry has dropped significantly. Under the impact of the Omicron epidemic again, the original trend of economic stabilization due to the steady growth policy has dropped again. The continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also added uncertainty to China's exports this year. The realization of the 5.5% growth target set at the beginning of the year may require greater efforts to maintain stability, and the steady growth policy in the second quarter is expected to be further implemented.
Risk tips
Geographical conflicts exceeded expectations, epidemic development exceeded expectations, and inflation exceeded expectations
