In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world fell again, and the improvement trend was strengthened. In terms of economy, although the prosperity data of manufacturing industry in Europe and the United States have declined, it is still in the expansion range, and the prosperity level of non manufacturing industry has improved more than expected in the environment of good epidemic situation; At the same time, the US unemployment rate fell further to 3.6% in March. The good economic situation brought continuous selling pressure to the bond market, and the yield of US Treasury bonds rose significantly. In terms of policy, according to the minutes of the March interest rate meeting released this week, the members tend to shrink the scale to US $96 billion / month, and agree with a 50bp interest rate increase, which further strengthens the concerns of the US bond market and has an impact on the US stock market, especially the NASDAQ index.
In terms of China's environment, the impact of the spread of the epidemic on China's economy is still strengthening. Not only did the Caixin service industry business activity index drop sharply to 42% in March, down 8.2 percentage points from February; Moreover, according to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, during the Qingming Festival in 2022, the number of Chinese tourists and tourism revenue decreased by 26.2% and 30.9% respectively year-on-year, only 68.0% and 39.2% in the same period in 2019. Although the previously released questionnaire survey of the central bank shows that the income confidence, employment feeling and employment expectation of the residents' department in the first quarter of 2022 are flat or even better than those in the fourth quarter of 2021, the intensification of the epidemic since late March is bound to significantly suppress expectations, which brings a test to boost consumption. In terms of policy, this week's national standing committee will continue to emphasize "putting steady growth in a more prominent position" and "effectively stabilizing the macro-economic market". We should strive to ensure employment through stabilizing market players and increase the support of monetary policy to the real economy. Generally speaking, the frequent outbreaks in China have led to obvious restrictions on the flow of people and logistics, which not only limits consumer behavior and suppresses consumer confidence, but also restricts the implementation of steady growth measures, that is, the realization of the goal of steady growth depends not only on the care of larger-scale stability maintenance policies, but also on the improvement of the situation of epidemic prevention and control; Compared with the latter, the management is obviously more proactive towards the former. In the face of the interference of the epidemic, we should not only have confidence in winning, but also have considerable patience.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions rebounded slightly, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose further. In the middle reaches, steel prices continued to rise, while cement prices rebounded slightly. Upstream, the price of thermal coal remained volatile, while the price of coking coal reached a new high. Among non-ferrous metals, except for the weak performance of aluminum price, they all remained strong, the price of precious metals decreased slowly, and the price of crude oil decreased significantly.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
