The “bear market umbrella” effect of high dividends is obvious
Under the turbulent overseas situation and the spread of internal epidemic, the market fell as a whole, and the income of public funds underperformed the market. China’s epidemic broke out in many economic gathering areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and the downward pressure on the economy increased. Superimposed on the repeated conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and the unstable situation between China and the United States, the overall market fell in 2022 / 3, the Shanghai composite index fell 5.8% in the whole month, and the average return of active partial equity public funds was – 6.5%, which had no excess return compared with the overall market. In the growth and value portfolio constructed by Soochow strategy, the excess return of high dividend, faceless sub new and pb-roe portfolio exceeded 5%.
The high dividend strategy countered the attack, with an excess return of 15% in March. Generally speaking, in the period of decline and shock consolidation after the sharp rise of the market, the high dividend strategy gives play to the characteristics of “bear market umbrella”, and the excess return is obvious. The excess return in March was 15%, leading all strategy combinations. Especially in the first half of March, under the “internal worries” of economic growth and the “external aggression” of the peripheral situation, the market fell rapidly in the short term, and the high dividend strategy became the “ballast” during the period of market fluctuation.
Among the thematic indexes, the energy index led the rise. Starting from the international situation and China’s policies, we focus on energy and old and new infrastructure. On March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system. The top-level design of energy transformation was released, which superimposed the continuous fermentation of Russia Ukraine conflict and promoted the rise of energy prices. The excess return of energy index in March was 11%. The spread of the epidemic in China, especially the closure of Shenzhen and Shanghai, has increased the pressure on steady growth, and the old infrastructure has achieved an excess return of 6% under the expectation of further policy stimulus.
Construction of various portfolios and stock pools
Growth strategy 1: secondary new shares (secondary new without changing face & quantitative secondary new). Applicable environment: small market value is dominant. In addition, in the volatile market, the quantitative sub new strategy combination performs better. Stocks with the highest growth rate in March: Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) (the second new without changing face) Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) (Quantitative new).
Growth strategy 2: tenfold stocks (individual stock portfolio & fund manager portfolio). Applicable environment of individual stock portfolio: the overall market continues to rise; Applicable environment of fund manager portfolio: the large market value is dominant, and the excess return continues to rise after 2016. Stocks with less decline in March: Jafron Biomedical Co.Ltd(300529) , Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) (individual stock portfolio); Top gainers in March: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (fund manager portfolio).
Value based strategy 1: high dividend. Applicable environment: in the period of decline and shock after the sharp rise of the market, the excess return reached 15% in March, ranking among the top gainers: Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) .
Value based strategy 2: PEG & pb-roe. Peg strategy optimization, applicable environment: the overall market is upward or volatile, and the performance is relatively better when the small market value is dominant; Pb-roe applicable environment: bear market or shock market. Top gainers in March: Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) (PEG) Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development (Group) Ltd(000011) Dong Yi Ri Sheng Home Decoration Group Co.Ltd(002713) （PB-ROE）。
Risk warning: the enterprise’s profit is less than expected, and the performance of the enterprise’s historical financial data does not represent the future; Under the new market environment, the screening criteria obtained according to the historical retrospective effect may be invalid; The individual stocks involved in this report do not constitute investment suggestions.
