Suggestions on strategy configuration in April: postpone the decision, and make plans slowly
“Internal stagnation” has become the core factor dragging down a shares. Since the fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increase of S & P 500 relative to the Shanghai Composite Index has reached 15%. The significant deviation from the domestic and foreign markets points to that the external impact is gradually weakening, and the fermentation of “internal stagnation” and the concerns about China US relations have become the core contradiction dragging down a shares.
Historically, the stock price performance is highly correlated with the performance of the first quarterly report, which is an important feature of the market in April. According to the statistical results since 2010, the performance of the first quarterly report has a very high explanatory power for the performance of the stock market in April, while the correlation between the performance of the annual report of the previous year and the relative performance of individual stocks in April is not significant, that is, it is the first quarterly report rather than the annual report of the previous year that determines the stock price performance in the performance window period in April. Combined with the pre disclosed performance in 2021 and the consistent profit forecast in 2022, the industries with the highest performance in the first quarter are expected to focus on the upstream resources and high boom track sectors.
The postponement of the test period of steady growth effect has led to the postponement of the decision-making window again. As mentioned in the previous report, there is a high probability that the policy will take effect from the end to the end of the market, but there is no clear time lag relationship. Before the “internal lag” + “external inflation” does not show a substantial improvement, the possibility of the next second bottom is not ruled out. The so-called “April decision” in history is based on the completion of important meetings, the intensive disclosure of the performance of listed companies and the timely landing of peak season economic data. However, under the disturbance of the current epidemic, the real economy continues to be depressed and the test period for the landing effect of steady growth policies is postponed again, which also leads to the postponement of the decision window again. The middle and later period of the second quarter is an important observation window. Referring to the post epidemic recovery process in the second and third quarters of 2020, the probability of entities after disturbance ushered in a rapid recovery stage. If the current round of epidemic spread can be effectively controlled in early April, the transmission from the end of credit to the end of economy is expected to be realized in the middle and late second quarter.
Core conclusions and strategic suggestions: the short-term allocation tends to be balanced. The first quarter report is an important starting point for participating in the oversold growth, while the 50 certainty is still the highest. The layout is based on three main lines: 1) weak credit and weak entity, further strengthening the demand for steady growth, and the transmission of monetary credit needs to be strengthened urgently. High quality banks and state-owned enterprise developers are recommended; 2) In April, the quarterly report market was welcomed, and the short-term growth stocks were more flexible. The communication and state-owned enterprise reform in the direction of new infrastructure development + military industry determined by the growth trend were recommended; 3) Oil transportation benefiting from the expansion of regional alternative demand, as well as aquaculture and catering with the concept of dilemma reversal.
April gold stock portfolio
1. China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) : global layout, cost reduction and efficiency increase, and high growth can be expected;
2. Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) : prominent cost advantages and steady growth of production capacity;
3. Satellite chemistry: the production capacity has been put into operation one after another, and the profit has reached a new level;
4 China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) : the demand for steady growth is strengthened and the valuation repair is accelerated;
5 China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) : industrial extension and transformation, and the opening of a new growth pole;
6. Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Co.Ltd(600416) : the scarcity of hard science and technology is improving, and the industrial inflection point is approaching;
7. Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) : the silicon industry has expanded its production and speed up, with high performance and long-term growth;
8. Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) : the data security outbreak is imminent, and the leading edge is prominent;
9. Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : the reversal trend has appeared, waiting for the east wind of the industry cycle;
10. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the reform continues to advance, and Maotai is stable and far-reaching;
11. Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) : the logic of long and short is improved, and the safety margin is high;
12. China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) : stable fundamentals and rapid diversified business;
13. Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) : excellent soil storage, rapid expansion and low risk;
14 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) : the most growing state-owned bank;
15. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) : the fundamental advantages are continued, the certainty is high, and the expectation is increased;
16. Meituan: scale effect appears and performance continues to be verified.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is out of control; 2. A sharp recession; 3. The policy has changed more than expected.
