The US dollar index fell slightly, the interest rate difference between China and the United States widened, Ted interest rate difference narrowed slightly, and China’s capital gradually turned loose. The US dollar index fell slightly last week (2022032820220401). As of March 29, 2022, the net long position increased slightly. The interest rate gap between China and the United States has widened, the nominal interest rate of US bonds has decreased significantly, the real interest rate has continued to rise, and inflation expectations have gradually dropped. For overseas, Ted’s interest rate spread has narrowed slightly and offshore dollar liquidity has improved slightly; For China, the inter-bank capital has gradually turned loose, the liquidity stratification has eased, and the term spread (10y-1y) has begun to widen. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat and volatility of real estate, construction and other sectors are still at a relatively high level in history; In terms of research, the research heat of computer, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, household appliances, medicine, Dianxin, nonferrous metals and other sectors ranked first, while the research heat of nonferrous metals, steel, military industry, banking and other sectors increased rapidly month on month.
The northward allocation continued to return, and the trading order was net buying as a whole, but the trading fluctuated greatly. Last week (2022032820220401), the northward allocation market net bought A-Shares of 9.729 billion yuan, and the northward trading market net bought A-Shares of 11.887 billion yuan. On a daily basis, the northward allocation is still net buying of a shares; Northbound trading fluctuates greatly. In terms of industry, the consensus between northbound trading and configuration is to net buy new power, nonferrous metals, food and beverage, finance, chemical industry, automobile, construction and transportation sectors, and net sell industries such as military industry, electric power and public utilities. In terms of style, the northward configuration / trading sector net buys the growth and value sectors of the large / medium market at the same time, while there are obvious differences in other types of style sectors. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the northward allocation board net purchased Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 1.653 billion yuan, 682 million yuan and 413 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the chemical, building materials, electronics and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions fell slightly and remained at an all-time low. Last week, nonferrous real estate and nonferrous metals, such as agricultural finance and nonferrous metals, were sold for 2026.5 billion yuan, and nonferrous metals, such as real estate and nonferrous metals. The proportion of financing purchases of coal, petroleum and petrochemical, non bank, steel, building materials, commerce and retail, light industry, transportation, military industry and other sectors increased month on month, but they were all below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong net buys small cap value and net sells other style sectors.
The position of public offering increased slightly, and the ETF mainly held by individuals was used as the proxy variable to show that Jimin “copied the bottom” first and then redeemed the fund. According to the calculation based on the quadratic programming method: the A-share position of the active partial stock fund increased slightly last week (2022032820220401). After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its position in the sectors of electronics, military industry, nonferrous metals, new electricity, machinery, medicine and consumer services, and mainly reduced its position in the sectors of food and beverage, banking, building materials, real estate, media and coal. Last week, ETFs mainly held by individuals were first net subscribed and then gradually redeemed, which means that the market may still be in the state of “negative feedback” (i.e. “sell up and buy down”), among which ETFs related to science and technology, new energy, medicine, military industry and other sectors were mainly net subscribed and ETFs related to financial and real estate sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy technology, new energy, medicine and other sectors and sell financial and real estate sectors, while there are differences in the consumption sector. It is worth mentioning that ETFs mainly held by institutions are also net subscribed first and then gradually redeemed. Among them, broad-based ETFs are mainly net subscribed. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys real estate, medicine, agriculture, coal and other sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought consumption, new energy, finance and some TMT, cycle and other sectors. On the whole, all kinds of investors have a high degree of purchase consensus in the automobile sector, followed by construction, machinery, petroleum and petrochemical, medicine, new electric power, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other sectors. According to the calculation based on the quadratic programming method, at present, the active partial stock fund is still buying the cyclical sectors such as nonferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical, and has reduced its holdings in the coal sector whose fluctuation is still at an all-time high, but the switching may still occur. The long-term funds represented by the northward allocation sector also choose to buy the above cyclical sectors and sell the coal sector slightly. In addition, for the real estate sector with high growth and high trading heat and volatility, the active partial stock funds choose to reduce their holdings, while the northward allocation sector buys slightly.
Risk tip: measurement error.
