1. Macro environment and policy status
In March, PMI fell below the boom and bust line affected by the epidemic. According to the statements of the financial stability Commission and the two sessions, the downward pressure on the economy is still great, but real estate, steady growth and epidemic prevention have begun to change in a positive direction. In terms of policy, considering that the current credit environment is basically flat, it is difficult to support the growth target of 5.5%, and further policy support is still needed in the follow-up. In terms of allocation, we improved the tactical allocation of rights and interests to high allocation, the investment value of large cap stocks was the same as that in the early stage, the investment value of medium cap stocks rebounded slightly, and the investment value of consumption and growth style increased slightly; Maintain the standard allocation of interest rate bonds, reduce the high rated credit bonds to standard allocation or low allocation, and maintain the convertible bonds to low allocation; Maintain low allocation of industrial products, and it is recommended that standard allocation or low allocation Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ; Low allocation and long RMB strategy. Suggested positions: equity (67%) bonds (18%) commodities (14%) cash (1%).
2. Views and suggestions on asset allocation
Quantitative view: in March, there was a large pullback in all sectors, and the pullback in finance and consumption sectors was small. In terms of industry, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology and other industries outperformed significantly, while electronics, household appliances, computers and other industries retreated significantly. Based on the two-beta model, we constructed the manufacturing activity index as the proxy variable. According to the latest data of the model, the Tianfeng manufacturing activity index decreased year-on-year, cash flow decreased and the discount rate decreased. The model suggests to allocate the growth and consumption sectors in April.
Equity market view: the market continued to bottom out in mid and early March and rebounded weakly in late March; China's contradiction is the main reason for the marginal passivation of overseas shocks. In this environment, the funds mainly play in three directions: one is the real estate where the policy may be further relaxed, the other is the energy and agriculture of the inflation line, and the third is the medicine of the epidemic line. Looking forward to the future, short-term logic: Breathing window, but twists and turns; Medium term logic: after the end of the policy, the key to the end of the market lies in China's social finance and overseas shrinkage. From Q4 last year to the first half of this year, the main line of industry configuration is still a dilemma reversal. It is recommended to pay attention to [pork], [mandatory food], [automobile chain] and [tourism travel]. At present, pork and tourism travel perform relatively well. Follow up auto chains (EV, smart car, auto parts) and mandatory food can also be focused on.
Bond market view: after the gold stability meeting held in late March, the central bank increased the investment in the open market, creating a stable and loose liquidity environment for the market. In the follow-up, due to: 1) the economy is facing new downward pressure and needs monetary policy support; 2) The central bank is constrained by price and external pressure. In April, there was little pressure on capital as a whole. Considering the credit easing, the central bank's RRR reduction in April is still expected; The interest rate cut needs to wait for the further confirmation of Q1 economic and financial data. At present, the transaction focus of the bond market is still on the policy side, and the follow-up can focus on the trend of finance, real estate and credit. It is expected that the long-term interest rate will continue to fluctuate before April 15. After April 15, it needs to be judged in combination with data and policy choices. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to pay attention to the allocation value of CD, capital supplement tools and 3-year bonds.
View of non-ferrous metals: affected by the continuous high growth of new energy vehicle sales, the recovery of stainless steel demand and the continuous innovation of LME nickel price, the overall recovery of industrial metal prices in March; In terms of precious metals, the Russian Ukrainian peace talks made initial progress, weakening the demand for risk aversion. At the same time, the capital flow at the end of the quarter and the yield of two-year US Treasury bonds rose, driving the strength of the US dollar and weakening the attraction of gold. The price of precious metals fluctuated as a whole; The price of Rare Earth continues to fluctuate at a high level, and the persistence of the high center of rare earth price continues to exceed expectations due to the resonance of optimistic demand, policy and integration; Carbon neutralization and better demand for new energy vehicles under the guidance of policies will promote the lithium salt price to remain high. Due to the shortage of cobalt raw materials in China and the strong overall demand of the cobalt market, the cobalt price may continue to fluctuate at a narrow high level.
Crude oil view: by analyzing the annual guidelines of shale oil companies and the guidance data related to capital expenditure and production, it can be seen that although the increase of capital expenditure is not small, the increase of production is very limited. The shale oil industry faces: 1) more capital expenditure is used for front-end drilling without directly bringing new production; 2) The proportion of reinvestment continued to decline; 3) Overall rising costs and other issues. The proportion of cash flow used as capital expenditure is getting lower and lower, so it is difficult to achieve additional production growth to make up for the gap caused by Russia, and it is difficult to maintain the balance of the crude oil market.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) view: at present, China still needs to import some grains, such as soybeans, corn and wheat, which are highly dependent on foreign countries and greatly affected by international trade. Recently, the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, inflation, climate change and other factors have affected the tradable amount of grain, the rigid superposition of demand and the decline of grain supply. It is expected that most grain prices will continue to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) allocation value. In addition, the current pig price is low, and the subsequent capacity removal is expected to accelerate. At the same time, considering the impact of covid-19 on the resumption of work in the off-season of traditional consumption, the loose state of supply and demand will intensify. It is expected that the average pig price will fluctuate from low to April to may, and may be further explored.
Risk tips: the steady growth policy was not fulfilled as expected, the liquidity was tightened as expected, the spread of mutant strains exceeded expectations, overseas uncertainties, etc.
