Key investment points:
Public funds: balance between the application and redemption of “new” and “old” funds. 1) In March, 45 billion public offering partial share funds were newly established, a decrease of more than 70% compared with the same period in 2021 and 2020, which is still lower than the same period in 2019; 2) In February, the application and redemption of “new” and “old” funds were balanced. The change of total shares of partial equity funds came to dynamic balance in February. 21.5 billion shares of stock funds were redeemed, and the total shares increased slightly by 700 million; 3) Active partial equity funds may be in the position management of “high selling and low absorbing”.
Private equity funds: new issuance decreased, and the net value pressure reached the level at the beginning of 2016. 1) The growth rate of private equity funds has slowed down, and the number of stock products has fallen; 2) At present, the number of private equity strategic products with a net value of less than 0.8 accounts for 10.23%, slightly higher than the level at the beginning of 2016 and far from the level at the end of 2018. The proportion was 9.44% on January 28, 2016 and 16.83% on October 18, 2018. From this perspective, the market callback stage at the beginning of this round has reached the low point of “negative feedback” at the beginning of 2016, and the current market is still worried about the risk of a large number of closed positions of private equity funds.
Northward capital: the substantial outflow stage has ended. 1) The cumulative net outflow of northbound funds in the first three months of 2022 was – 24.3 billion yuan, and the net outflow in March alone was – 45.1 billion yuan. This year, mainly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the net outflow of foreign capital represented by northward funds exceeded 40 billion in March. In the last week of March, the net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan returned to the north, breaking the pressure of capital, and the stage of substantial outflow may have ended; 2) In the first three months of this year, northbound funds significantly increased their positions against the market in non-ferrous metals and power equipment industries, while coal and real estate industries with leading growth participated less.
Two financing funds: market participation may have bottomed out. 1) The proportion of the balance of the two financial institutions in the circulating market value continued to fall from the high point of 2.69% in 2021 to 2.43% at the end of February, and slightly rebounded to 2.51% in March; 2) From the perspective of the proportion of two financing transactions in the total a transaction volume, the participation of two financing funds in the whole market has bottomed out and leveled off.
Insurance funds: the equity position has warmed up to the historical median. The equity position of insurance funds has rebounded from the low point of 12.09% in July last year to 12.60% in February, close to the historical median level of 12.71%. Based on the total balance of insurance funds used at the end of February of 23.39 trillion, every 0.1% change in equity position will bring about a net change of about 24 billion funds.
Bank financial management: the recovery of equity allocation is on the way. 1) The scale of bank financial management has risen steadily since the new regulations on asset management, reaching 29 trillion by the end of 21; 2) The proportion of equity in the asset allocation of financial products continues to shrink, and the new asset management regulations are officially implemented. Public funds will be the first hand to re cut into equity. The proportion of equity assets in the asset allocation of financial products continued to decline to 3.27% at the end of the 21st century, while the proportion of public funds increased significantly to 4% compared with 2.58% in 2021h1. To a certain extent, it shows that the pressure drop of financial management on the allocation of equity assets has decreased, and the first choice for financial companies whose own research ability remains to be completed is public funds. In terms of the scale of financial products of RMB 29 trillion at the end of the 21st century, if the proportion of equity assets picks up to 4%, it will bring incremental funds of RMB 211.7 billion.
Industrial capital: it is expected that there will be less pressure to reduce holdings in the next two months. 1) In the first three months of 2022, the net outflow of industrial capital was 100 billion yuan, the overall holdings of communications and banks still increased, and the net holdings of pharmaceutical and biological, electronic, power equipment and basic chemical industry exceeded 10 billion yuan; 2) The market value level of the lifting of the ban in the next April and may is low, and the pressure of reducing holdings is expected to be affected by the lifting of the ban, which will be small in the next two months; 3) From now to the end of the year, there is great pressure to lift the ban on e-commerce and banks, both exceeding the level of 400 billion.
Risk tip: there is a lag in public data, unexpected changes in capital market policies, and unexpected deterioration in the international situation.
