Core points
How long will the pattern of "internal stagnation" + "external inflation" last? In the short term, it is difficult to alleviate the pressure of "inflation" in the periphery. Before seeing the signal of substantive recession, it is not appropriate to play the game too early. The pattern of external tightening and internal loosening will probably continue; China's economy is facing the embarrassing situation of "entity has not improved and credit regeneration twists and turns". The new round of epidemic spread also has a significant disturbance to downstream demand. The pattern of "internal stagnation" + "external inflation" will probably continue to the first ten days of the second quarter.
After 3000 points, rebound or reverse? Due to the periodic disturbance of the epidemic and the downward pressure of real estate inertia, the current combination of "weak entity and policy" may continue to the middle and later stage of Q2; However, there is no clear time lag relationship between the policy bottom and the market bottom. Before the "internal stagnation + external inflation" is resolved, the possibility of a second bottom is not ruled out; In the historical sample from the end of the policy to the end of the market, 2012 can be regarded as the lower limit of the follow-up market. Considering that the pace of policy force this year is earlier and stronger, the market trend in 2022 is not a bear market. From the perspective of multiple dimensions such as comprehensive valuation, performance, risk premium and technical indicators, the corresponding point near 3000 is the end of reasonable valuation.
Market outlook: the decision to postpone, the value is the shield, Xu and Tu. In April, there was no decision, and the epidemic caused the test period of the implementation effect of the steady growth policy to be postponed again. The middle and later stage of the second quarter is an important observation period. In the short term, the first quarterly report is an important starting point to participate in the oversold growth; In the medium-term dimension, considering the interest rate environment, the reversal of incremental funds and the inevitable slowdown of the boom track, the overall beta market of the boom track has changed from strong to weak. In the first half of the second quarter, it was difficult for the market to get rid of the shock pattern under the influence of internal stagnation, the scope of policy force will continue to spread, the value stocks represented by big finance will continue to dominate (the ranking of real estate moves forward), the certainty of SSE 50 at the index level is higher, and pay attention to the subject stocks with relatively undervalued value and low positions and the dilemma reversal sector; If the spread of the epidemic is controlled in April, the real economy is expected to stabilize in the middle and late second quarter, that is, the logic from the end of credit to the end of economy takes effect, the market is expected to stabilize and improve, and the style is likely to turn to consumption and midstream manufacturing.
Suggestions on industry allocation in the second quarter: (1) banking & Real Estate: it is expected that the policy will support the bottom, and more favorable policies for real estate are in the way; (2) Photovoltaic equipment and sea breeze: policies at home and abroad resonate and high prosperity is determined; (3) Communication: an important part of infrastructure industry, digital economy hardware base; (4) Military industry: the large-scale array of weapons and equipment boosted the boom, and the valuation returned to a historical low; (5) Shipping: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has stimulated the surge of tanker freight rates and the intensification of supply chain tension; (6) Breeding: the certainty of pig cycle reversal is strong. At present, it is still in the left layout stage.
