Key investment points:
Introduction: affected by geographical conflicts and epidemic situations outside China, the economy slowed down in March. The regular meetings of the national Standing Committee and the central bank have strengthened the direction of policy easing, stabilized market expectations, and insisted on the goal. China's economy is in the transitional stage of phase 1 countercyclical regulation and phase 2 recovery of the Pringle cycle. It is stable first and then mature. The high dividend strategy is the shield, with small cap growth and special new attack. Focusing on strategic security, grasp the opportunities of steady growth, strategic resources and independent control.
PMI showed that the supply and demand of economic activities were weak in March. The change of PMI in March mainly reflects two aspects. First, the current epidemic abroad continues, geopolitical conflicts escalate, commodity prices such as crude oil and industrial metals rise sharply, export orders are also affected, and China's manufacturing production activities and market demand are weakened. Therefore, PMI prices rise and orders weaken; Second, the frequency of outbreaks in China has increased, some enterprises in some areas have temporarily reduced production and stopped production, the normal production and operation of upstream and downstream related enterprises have also been affected, and logistics has also been affected to a certain extent. PMI production and order items have weakened, and inventory items have increased. At present, China's economy is in the transitional stage of reverse cycle regulation in stage 1 and recovery in stage 2 of the Pringle cycle. Chaotic cloud ferry, ERP high, A-share allocation value highlights, first stable and then successful, high dividend strategy as the shield, small cap growth, specializing in special new attacks.
The regular meetings of the national Standing Committee and the central bank will firmly adhere to the direction of steady growth and stick to the goal of steady growth. 1) On March 29, the national standing committee pointed out that we should stick to the goal and put steady growth in a more prominent position. When formulating this year's macro policies, we have made forward-looking consideration of many changes in China's external environment. Keeping the economy running smoothly in the first quarter and the first half of the year is very important to achieve the annual goal. Policies to stabilize the economy should be carried out early and quickly, and measures that are not conducive to stabilizing market expectations should not be taken. Plans should be formulated to deal with greater uncertainty. At present, the policy reserve is sufficient, and the policy objectives and direction formulated by the two sessions are still unshakable. In terms of the issuance progress of special bonds, the annual issuance progress is significantly ahead, similar to that in 2019; In addition, compared with December, the fiscal deposit from January to February increased by 1185.1 billion yuan, the highest growth in the past five years, with abundant surplus financial resources. The fiscal expenditure may accelerate the landing and improve the growth potential energy in the second quarter. Water conservancy projects and new infrastructure may be important to ensure the smooth and stable operation of the economy in the first half of the year. 2) On March 30, the regular meeting of the political commissar of the central bank for goods was held, and the policy strength is expected to increase. In terms of policy tone, compared with 2021q4, the new expressions of this meeting are "strengthening counter cyclical regulation", "strengthening implementation" and "boosting confidence". Monetary policy is expected to continue to be loose and enhance market confidence.
Overseas: the fifth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, and the US employment data was strong. 1) On March 29, the fifth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine achieved an impact beyond market expectations. Russian Deputy Defense Minister fuming said that the Russian Ministry of defense decided to significantly reduce military operations in Kiev and Chernigov, so as to increase mutual trust. Ukraine said that Ukraine and Russia were close to reaching an agreement, but the two sides still had differences to be resolved. 2) US employment data strongly supported the Fed's tightening. In March, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, the non-agricultural employment data increased for 11 consecutive months, and the pressure of wage rise continued to increase.
The north direction is significantly warmer, and the melting heat of the two is reduced. The net inflow of funds from the north this week was 22.9 billion yuan, which recovered significantly after the cumulative net outflow exceeded 60 billion yuan for three consecutive weeks; The overall trading volume fell to - 708 million yuan, accounting for - 708% of the total trading volume. In the direction of the industry, the two capital subjects are still in a divergent situation. Under the callback and consolidation of power equipment, the capital continues to increase positions in the north, and the capital outflow of food and beverage for many weeks has turned to inflow; The two financing funds have significantly flowed out of non-ferrous metals and non bank finance, and the non bank is still under the pressure of capital selling.
Industry allocation suggestions: focus on strategic security and grasp the opportunities of steady growth, strategic resources and independent control. a. Policy driven steady growth: 1) real estate development; 2) Building construction; 3) Consumption of building materials. b. Strategic resources: 1) coal; 2) Oil and gas, oil service and oil transportation; 3) Gold; 4) Industrial metals; 5) Energy metals; 6) Grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . c. Self controlled long-term track: 1) wind power & Photovoltaic & nuclear power; 2) Semiconductor equipment and materials; 3) Military industry.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the persistence of inflation exceeded expectations, the tightening of liquidity exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
