The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices
Due to the obstruction of the supply chain caused by the epidemic, weather factors and rising energy prices, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price has been rising all the way since the epidemic in 2020, while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has kept the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price rising, and the CBOT corn and soybean prices are close to the new high of 10 years ago.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up the price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in two ways: 1) as the main supplier of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in the world, the war has a direct impact on Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) planting and transportation, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production reduction leads to price rise; 2) As a major energy country, Russia's conflict has led to the rise of natural gas price and pushed up the price of nitrogen fertilizer; At the same time, as important suppliers of potash fertilizer, Russia and Belarus also saw a sharp rise in the price of potash fertilizer. The rise in the price of chemical fertilizer may push up the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price from the cost side.
Factors other than the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
1) extreme weather affects supply: from the end of last year to the beginning of the year, the dry weather in South America has greatly affected the output of corn, soybeans and other crops in South America, and the inventory of soybeans and other crops has continued to decline; 2) Inflation expectation pushes up: on the one hand, the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price pushes up inflation, but on the other hand, the rise of inflation expectation may further promote the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, such as the rise of labor cost, traffic congestion, energy and other bulk prices, which all exert greater transmission pressure on Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price rise gives birth to investment opportunities in multiple fields
(1) seed industry and agricultural machinery for improving efficiency: 1) seed industry: seed industry is the chip of agriculture and the key to agricultural growth. The scale of China's seed industry has exceeded 100 billion, but on the other hand, China's seed enterprises are generally small in size and weak in profitability, and leading enterprises are expected to benefit from increased concentration; 2) Agricultural machinery: from the comparison between China and the United States, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price in China is generally high, but the profit is lower, mainly due to the difference in cost, especially labor cost. The decline of labor cost mainly depends on the improvement of mechanization level. There is still a big gap between China's agricultural machinery and developed countries, and there is broad space for domestic substitution.
(2) livestock and poultry breeding: on the one hand, the price of pigs continued to decline, on the other hand, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices accelerated to rise. The comparison between the two led to the pig grain ratio falling to a historical low, the industry faced deep losses, and is expected to accelerate the clearing of production capacity.
(3) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) producers and traders: the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices is good for grain producers and traders. Relevant stocks of US stocks hit a record high, while the Chinese planting sector is still weaker than the general trend. At present, the valuation of the grain planting industry is at a relatively low quantile of 36%. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of the sector catalyzed by price rise.
\u3000\u3000? Risk statement
(1) mitigation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; (2) The epidemic situation continued, resulting in the demand recovery less than expected;
(3) the upstream bulk prices fell and inflation expectations fell; (4) Energy and fertilizer prices fell.
