Ping An View:
Brief comments on the focus of this week: 1) the United States releases crude oil reserves on a large scale. The Biden administration announced the release of the largest strategic oil reserve (SPR) in U.S. history: 1 million barrels of strategic oil reserves will be released to the market every day in the next six months to stabilize the rising international oil prices. We believe that the main reason for the US government to sell crude oil reserves is that the Biden government hopes to stabilize the inflationary pressure caused by rising oil prices in response to the upcoming mid-term elections. However, from the actual effect, the impact of the US government's release of crude oil reserves on international oil prices is uncertain. 2) The situation in Russia and Ukraine has eased. After the end of the first day of the fifth round of Russian Ukrainian negotiations, head of the Russian delegation mezinski said that the negotiations between the two sides were very constructive. After the end of the first day of the fifth round of Russian Ukrainian negotiations, the head of the Russian delegation mezinski said that Ukraine would give up joining any military alliance.
Overseas economic tracking: 1) in March, the non farm employment in the United States increased steadily, the unemployment rate decreased, the labor participation rate increased, and the overall performance of the job market was strong. However, it is worth noting that the month on month growth rate of average hourly wage in the United States rebounded in March, which may reflect that the supply and demand situation in the labor market is still tight, and the pressure on inflation can not be ignored. 2) Under the weakness of supply and demand, the PMI of US manufacturing industry fell, the pressure of price rise intensified, and began to react with downstream demand. However, the employment index rebounded significantly month on month, the supplier delivery index decreased slightly, and the order backlog index decreased, indicating that the previous situation of limited production capacity and tight supply chain may be eased. 3) Inflation in the eurozone hit another record high. In March, HICP in the eurozone increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the core inflation rate excluding price factors such as food and energy also continued to rise significantly, reaching 3%. From the month on month perspective, the inflationary pressure in the eurozone is more obvious. In March, the HICP in the eurozone increased by 2.5% month on month, which had never exceeded 1% before. 4) The cumulative diagnosis growth rate of covid-19 in the world has decreased, and the overseas epidemic has eased. Among them, the growth rate of new confirmed infections in South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, New Zealand and other countries decreased significantly, but the epidemic situation in Japan, France, Canada and other countries rebounded. The degree of unsealing in many parts of Europe has expanded.
Global Asset Performance: 1) most of the world's major stock indexes rose, Russian stocks rose sharply at the opening, and European stocks rebounded slightly. The three major indexes of US stocks rose first and then fell, and the trend was divided. The Hang Seng index continued to rebound, rising by 3% for the whole week, led by the energy sector, and the Hang Seng technology index rose by 3.3% for the whole week. 2) The trend of US bond yield of each term is differentiated, and the yield of 2-year and 10-year US bonds is upside down. The main reason for the decline in the yield of 10-year US bonds this week is that the obvious decline in international oil prices has cooled inflation expectations. After the Federal Reserve officials intensively issued the "Hawk" signal last week, the market expectation of raising interest rates has been rising, pushing the yield of 2-year US bonds up. It doesn't necessarily mean that the U.S. economy will fall in 10Y for a short time, but we don't think it will fall in 2Y in the past. 3) The United States released a large number of crude oil reserves, the international oil price fell significantly, and the WTI crude oil price fell below US $100 again. After the easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of precious metals, base metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) etc. all corrected. 4) The dollar index weakened again, and the euro and RMB strengthened. The non farm data released this week did not significantly boost the US dollar index. The cooling of global risk aversion suppressed the US dollar index, and the yen, as a representative of a safe haven currency, continued to depreciate.
